Answering all these recent posts at once . . .
CELG is among those mentioned as a buyout possibility. So is NBIX, for that matter. I agree with your take, though, and an approvable might be better than even odds. In any case, for me those two and Elan are short term trades with puts, meant to bag only a few per cent move in the stocks, and based in part on technical indicators. Normally I talk of slightly longer term or more event driven plays here.
PGS' suggestions are interesting. I admit to having some MSHL in my Mom's portfolio, but I agree those last PRs were a tad promotional and inaccurate. I'd be curious to hear what Peter thinks of them, as he also holds some MSHL. My Mom's portfolio also holds some INGN, but I've lightened on strength and we're playing with house money there. I have been debating selling the rest, as the H&N results have been a suspiciously long time in coming, and they won't talk much about it. IMGN, well things seem to happen awfully slowly there, too, but they seem to picking up a little steam, and other than that, I don't know what the short case is there. PGS, your shorting style seems a lot different from mine; would you care to add some color to your picks (I actually think I know your case on MSHL/NVGN and INGN, but IMGN?)?.
OSCI I disagree with. I know the management team is an issue, and I remember being fairly vocally short back when it was GENE. FACTIVE is currently an also ran BUT . . . If they can add the sinusitis indication to FACTIVE, the stock will really move up. They seem to me to be making headway in that direction. An sNDA would start things off there. But feel free to present evidence to me that it won't happen. I have that one in my Mom's portfolio, too; should I toss it out while there's still time?
I would throw AGIX in to the mix. I think odds are against the MACE trial being a success, and that Kenhott's suggestion that they might manage a lukewarm subset analysis is the most likely outcome. That one should be left to simmer until early next year. It's very binary, the company has convertible debt overshadowing its cash, and no pipe to speak of. But if MACE were to hit its primary endpoint, it could easily triple given the short ratio. As such, I recommend puts or some kind of straddle slightly favoring a negative outcome; I gather the IVs aren't that bad, and a high IV could be tolerated given the true binary nature of the situation. See my recent post on the "Binary Events" thread.
Cheers & Happy Thanksgiving to All, Tuck |
