Exall Resources / Southern Star Resources - Westwind Partners Inc. Report
An Excellent Summary of the story so far with a conservative glimpse into a promising future.
Seeing Gold in Red Lake
Excitement in the Red Lake gold camp is building based on recent spectacular drill results from the Gold Eagle Mine Property.
Joint-venture partners Exall Resources and Southern Star Resources (50:50) have returned intersections with better than 1-ounce gold grades in the Bruce Channel.
We are initially targeting a 75% potential return on both stocks, a modest portion of the total upside potential.
Investors should note the speculative nature of an investment in this early-stage exploration asset and significant downside risk on negative drill results.
We are initiating coverage of Exall Resources with a BUY rating and one-year target of $2.15.
We are initiating coverage of Southern Star Resources with a BUY rating and one-year target of $2.70.
Sector View: Positive
November 25, 2005
Exall Resources Limited
(EXL-T: $1.23)
Stock Rating BUY 52-Week Range $1.30–$0.135 Basic Shares O/S (MM) 69.5
F.D. Shares O/S (MM) 79.8 Management & Insiders 6.4% Market Cap ($MM) $85.5 Cash as at Sep. 30, 2005 ($MM) $3.7 Working Capital as at Sep. 30, 2005 ($MM) $3.9 Adjusted Market Cap ($MM) $81.6 3-Month Avg. Daily Trading Volume (000s) 808
One-Year Target Total Potential Return
Southern Star Resources Inc. (SSR-V: $1.55)
Stock Rating 52-Week Range Basic Shares O/S (MM)
F.D. Shares O/S (MM)
Management & Insiders
Market Cap ($MM)
Cash as at Sep. 30, 2005 ($MM)
$2.15 75%
BUY $1.65–$0.16
35.0
39.6 17.9%
$54.3 $1.8
Andrew Mikitchook, P.ENG., CFA
Research Analyst, Gold 416.815.1622 amikitchook@westwindpartners.ca
Philip Williams
Research Associate 416.815.1548 pwilliams@westwindpartners.ca
Working Capital as at Sep. 30, 2005 ($MM) $1.4
Adjusted Market Cap ($MM) $52.9
3-Month Avg. Daily Trading Volume (000s) 277
One-Year Target $2.70
Total Potential Return 75%
Sources: FactSet, Westwind Partners
(All figures in C$, unless otherwise noted.)
Table of Contents
Executive Summary.................................................................................... 1
Red Lake: The Epicentre for High-Grade ................................................................................. 2
Results to Date — High-Grade Déjà Vu? .................................................................................. 2
Why Grade Is the Driver .......................................................................................................... 4
A Brief History of the World’s Highest Grade Gold Mine ......................................................... 4
What to Watch For ................................................................................................................... 4
Valuation .................................................................................................................................. 5
Appendices
Appendix A: The Gold Eagle Mine Property ............................................................................ 6
Appendix B: Management Summary ........................................................................................ 7
Appendix C: Capitalization Summary ....................................................................................... 8
Exall Resources Ltd. (*EXL)
23-Nov-2004 to 24-Nov-2005 (Daily) High: 1.30
Canadian Dollar Low: 0.14
Last: 1.12
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Southern Star Resources Inc. (*SSR)23-Nov-2004to 24-Nov-2005 (Daily) Canadian Doll ar Hi gh: 1.65 Low: 0.16
Last: 1.30
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Source: FactSet
(See important disclosures on page 12 and inside back cover of this report.)
Executive Summary
Early results from the Gold Eagle Mine Property in Red Lake are impressive with multiple high-grade intercepts greater than 1 ounce per tonne. Investors should take an interest in both Exall Resources and Southern Star Resources, who share an equal interest in this property. We are initiating coverage of this speculative story with a BUY rating and a potential return of 75% for both companies.
The Gold Eagle Mine Property is at an early and speculative stage of exploration. Drill results to date do not represent nearly enough information to define an economic zone or even suggest that they have intersected a continuous mineralized structure. However, our attention has been caught by a number of factors which lead us to believe the property holds considerable promise and upside for the stock:
? The Bruce Channel discovery is directly down-dip from the past-producing Cochenour-Willans mine (Goldcorp) that mined 1.2 million ounces right to the eastern boundary of the Gold Eagle Mine Property.
? Drilling analysis has identified the geologic unit as the Balmer assemblage that is host to the Cochenour-Willans mine as well as the producing Campbell (Placer) and the Red Lake (Goldcorp) mines.
? No significant exploration for deep Balmer assemblage targets had been carried out on the property until 2003–2005.
? The potential for a takeover premium is intact as the property is not under the control of either of the Red Lake operators — Goldcorp or Placer.
Three Reasons to Invest
1. 1. History Repeats Itself: The recent results from the Bruce Channel can be compared to the initial high-grade discovery results from the Red Lake mine in March 1995, where nine high-grade intersections represented the discovery of the highest-grade, large-scale mine in the world.
2. 2. High-Grade Equals High Margins: The grade intersected so far in the Bruce Channel translates into high-margin potential that can overcome development and operating cost pressures faced by lower-grade operations.
3. 3. High-Impact Drilling: The partners are aggressively drilling the target and we expect a steady stream of results. Trading reaction should be volatile on both positive and negative results as both stocks are tightly held and closely followed.
Feel free to contact me should you wish to discuss these companies in detail.
Andrew Mikitchook, P.ENG., CFA
Research Analyst, Gold Mining 416.815.1622 amikitchook@westwindpartners.ca
Red Lake: The Epicentre for High Grade
The first gold rush began in Red Lake in 1926; however, is wasn’t until 1944 that the first viable discovery was made on the site of what is now the prolific, high-grade Red Lake mine owned by Goldcorp. This impressive asset has produced nearly 6 million ounces and has a current reserve of 5 million ounces at a grade of 2.5 ounces per tonne.
Exall and Southern Star are both focused on gold exploration in the Red Lake mining camp through their equal 50% interest in the Gold Eagle Mine Property, about two kilometres from the Red Lake mine and directly adjacent to the past-producing Cochenour-Willans mine. This report analyzes the recent deep exploration success the companies have had in the Bruce Channel where significant high-grade mineralization has been encountered. Both partners must carry their portion of exploration expenditures and have sufficient funding to continue drilling into Q2/06, with recent financings completed during the summer of 2005.
The combined management teams from Exall and Southern Star bring an impressive track record of mining exploration to the project (Appendix B). In addition to the JV exploration team, which boasts seasoned Red Lake veterans, members of Southern Star’s board bring recent operating experience managing the graduation of FNX Mining from explorer to nickel producer over the last three years.
Results to Date — High-Grade Déjà Vu?
The Gold Eagle results speak largely for themselves with four holes returning multiple individual intersections grading better than 1 ounce per tonne.
Exhibit 1: Goldcorp’s High-Grade Discovery Results (1995) Compared to the Gold Eagle Discovery (2005)
EXL/SSR — Gold Eagle Mine Property Goldcorp — Red Lake Mine
(Bruce Channel Discovery)
Hole # From (ft) To (ft) Length (ft) Gold (opt) Hole # Length (ft) Gold (opt)
BC4 4,046 4,048 2.5 1.5 34-48 5.4 8.4
BC10-01 3,730 3,734 4.2 3.3 34-51 6.1 39.7
4,077 4,087 9.8 2.8 34-77 10.5 9.6
BC10-02 4,780 4,789 8.4 1.2 34.52 6.0 7.5
Including 1.4 7.2 34-78 4.1 0.2
BC10-03 4,125 4,161 36.5 0.6 34-50 14.4 1.3
Including 19.7 1.1 34-49 7.3 6.8
BC10-03 4,917 4,927 9.7 1.0 30-851 9.7 14.3
Including 1.2 7.4 30-615 4.6 8.8
Source: Company Reports
The parallels between the Bruce Channel discovery and the nine holes that led to Goldcorp’s discovery of the Red Lake high-grade zone in March 1995 are fairly clear (Exhibit 1). Although the Bruce Channel discovery does not meet the Red Lake mines’ 10ounce average over 7.5 feet, we still see a significant presence of greater than 1 ounce per tonne intercepts that indicate the potential for a substantial deposit.
Exhibit 2 frames the location of these results while highlighting their location within the direct extension of the Cochenour–Willans ore bodies. Between holes BC-4 and BC10-1 an area of mineralization approximately 350 metres long has been defined. This handful of results is encouraging but does not yet define a new deposit or even resource — this is a very early-stage speculative discovery.
Exhibit 2: Section Placing the Bruce Channel Intercepts in the Extension of the Cochenour–Willans Mine
Source: Company Reports
Why Grade Is the Driver
Today, Goldcorp’s Red Lake mine is the world’s highest-grade, large-scale mine carrying 5
million ounces of reserves at 2.5 ounces per tonne. It is this high grade that built the
company into a single asset, C$3 billion dollar company.
The first four discovery holes drilled into the Bruce Channel have returned impressive 1+
ounce grades that may represent a new, company-making discovery.
We submit the following simplified calculations:
?? A grade of 1 ounce per tonne is equal to US$400 per tonne of ore using our
conservative long-term US$400 per ounce gold price.
?? Goldcorp is forecasting approximately US$225 per tonne of cash costs at the Red Lake
mine.
?? This implies a margin of US$175 per tonne — the type of margin that drives premium
gold sector valuations.
?? A small 100,000-ounce-per-year mine would generate US$17.5 million of cash flow,
suggesting a low cash flow multiple against the current market valuation, even for a
small mine at 1 ounce per tonne.
A Brief History of the World’s Highest-Grade Gold Mine
1926 The Red Lake Gold Rush began
1949 First gold was poured from the Dickenson Mine (now the Red Lake mine owned by Goldcorp)
March 1995 High-grade discovery based on nine holes averaging 10.0 ounces per tonne over 7.5 feet
August 2000 First production from the high grade
April 2001 Goldcorp reaches C$1 B in market cap effectively based on the single Red Lake asset*
December 2004 Goldcorp announces intention to merge with Wheaton River (Goldcorp valued at over C$3 B)
*The secondary Wharf mine did not, in our opinion, contribute substantially to Goldcorp’s valuation.
Sources: Company Reports, Westwind Partners
High-grade mineralization in the Red Lake camp is not unique to Goldcorp’s Red Lake mine. Within the Balmer assemblage, both Placer’s Campbell and the Cochenour-Willans mines historically mined multi-ounce, high-grade zones. The Balmer assemblage is intensively mineralized and we submit that Exall and Southern Star have likely discovered a new high-grade zone. Further drilling will show the size potential of the discovery.
What to Watch For
Exall and Southern Star have two rigs currently drilling in the Bruce Channel. We expect a steady stream of drill hole results from this program. Our guidance is to look for results which include 1+ ounce per tonne grades over 3–5+ feet of assumed true width. These types of results would add to the mineralization and should increase the share price. We reiterate the speculative nature of an investment in Exall or Southern Star and remind investors that there is a significant level of downside risk associated with negative drill results.
Valuation
Valuation of such an early stage and speculative asset is challenging. Based on available information, we conclude that there is a significant upside potential to this discovery. We are setting a 75% potential return target for both Exall and Southern Star with targets of $2.15 and $2.70, respectively.
High-grade potential of the Gold Eagle Mine Property:
? Four holes with multiple intercepts in excess of 1 ounce per tonne.
? Significant down-hole extent to the mineralization — up to 500 feet of variously mineralized Balmer assemblage interspersed with high-grade mineralization.
? Open in all directions — our analysis of the available plan and section data does not indicate any constraints on the mineralization.
Exhibit 3: Goldcorp Market Value from High-Grade Discovery to Production
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01
NB: The secondary Wharf mine did not, in our opinion, contribute substantially to Goldcorp’s valuation. Sources: FactSet, Company Reports
In Exhibit 3 we show the 1993 to 2001 timeline for the growth in value of the Red Lake mine asset using Goldcorp’s market cap as a proxy. We would like to highlight that we are not suggesting that the Gold Eagle Mine Property has, at this time, a comparable resource to the Red Lake mine. We present this exhibit as a demonstration that the market handsomely rewards high-grade discoveries as well as places premium valuations on such assets once they are operating.
We submit that even at a fraction of the size of Goldcorp’s Red Lake deposit, the Gold Eagle discovery could well drive the Exall/Southern Star valuations by several multiples. We are initially targeting a 75% potential return on both stocks, which represents only a modest portion of the total upside potential.
Appendix A: The Gold Eagle Mine Property
The Gold Eagle Mine Property is equally held by Exall Resources and Southern Star Resources and managed by a joint committee. The property is situated on the Red Lake trend about two kilometres from the Red Lake Mine and directly adjacent to the Couchenour–Willans Mine (Exhibit 4).
Terms of the Joint Venture
Exall and Southern Star concluded an agreement dated November 13, 2002, where Southern Star Resources Inc. could earn a 50% interest in the Gold Eagle Mine Property by:
1. 1. Making payments to Exall totaling $160,000 on or before December 31, 2004;
2. 2. Issuing three million shares of Southern Star to Exall on or before December 31, 2004; and
3. 3. Incurring exploration expenditures totaling $2 million on or before December 31, 2005.
In August 2004, Southern Star completed all three of the above conditions and entered into a 50:50 joint venture with Exall Resources for the continued development of the Gold Eagle Mine Property. The property has since been run jointly through a management committee and all expenditures are funded on a pro-rata basis.
Exhibit 4: Gold Eagle Mine Property Location
Source: Company Reports
The Western Discovery Zone
In early 2003, Southern Star completed a geophysical survey of the property and a drill program designed to test targets directly below and to the west of the Gold Eagle Mine itself. This work led to the discovery of the Western Discovery Zone. Drilling of the zone in 2003 and 2004 led to the resource calculation of 309,000 tonnes at 16.67 grams per tonne containing 165,700 ounces in December 2004.
Appendix B: Management Summary
Exall Resources Southern Star Resources
Stephen G. Roman Robert Cudney
Chairman, President and CEO Chairman
JV Management Committee Representative JV Management Committee Representative
30 years in the natural resource industry, Mr. Cudney is the President and Founder
including as a director and/or senior officer of Northfield Capital Corporation. He
of Roman Corporation and Denison Mines. also sits on several boards, including
He was also involved in the development Guyana Goldfields.
of the Glimmer Mine.
Derek C. Rance John Tait
JV Management Committee Alternate President and Director
40 years experience at all levels of the 13 years experience in mineral
mining industry. Current Chairman of exploration and development.
Behre Dolbear Canada. Previously
President and CEO of the Iron Ore
Company of Canada.
Frank S. Rebeyka Brent Peters
VP, Operations Chief Financial Officer
Edward J. Badida Chris Irwin
Chief Financial Officer Secretary, Treasurer and Director
T. Douglas Willock David Constable, Director
VP, Corporate Development JV Management Committee Alternate
Bernard A. Lang, Director William O. S. Ballard LLB, Director
Michael van Rens, Director Sheldon Inwentash C.A., Director
Terry MacGibbon, Director
Source: Company Reports
Joint Venture Exploration Team
John Whitton, BA, Mod., MA, P.Geo.
Exploration Manager Mr. Whitton has over 30 years experience as an exploration geologist, 25 years of which have been in the Red Lake Camp. Mr. Whitton is responsible for all field aspects of the program including logistics, geology, sampling, and administration.
Chester Kuryliw, M.Sc., P.Eng.
Independent Consulting Geologist Mr. Kuryliw has more than 50 years of mining and exploration experience, a large part of which in the Red Lake Camp. Of note, he was the underground manager and explorationist at the Cochenour Willans Mine from 1952 to 1966 and he mapped the MacKenzie Red Lake Mine in 1957.
Denis Forgeron
Mr. Forgeron has 30-plus years of international mining experience.
Appendix C: Capitalization Summary
Exall Resources Southern Star Resources
Shares Issued 69,496,438 Shares Issued 35,029,711
Options 3,898,750 Options 2,574,300
10-May-06 $0.50 50,000 7-Jan-08 $0.30 649,300
14-Sep-06 $0.48 112,500 4-Mar-08 $0.30 325,000
14-Sep-06 $0.50 56,250 23-Apr-08 $0.30 300,000
22-Sep-06 $0.80 40,000 14-Nov-08 $0.35 200,000
10-Oct-06 $0.23 630,000 22-Mar-09 $0.35 150,000
3-Oct-08 $0.20 1,450,000 16-Aug-09 $0.35 100,000
1-Mar-09 $0.50 125,000 12-Sep-10 $0.61 350,000
24-Jun-09 $0.35 150,000 19-Sep-10 $0.98 50,000
11-May-10 $0.25 500,000 25-Sep-10 $1.00 450,000
10-Aug-10 $0.22 450,000
22-Aug-10 $0.24 210,000
20-Sep-10 $0.80 125,000
Warrants 16-Jan-06 13-Sep-06 13-Sep-06 21-Sep-06 29-Dec-0622-Jul-07 $0.40 $0.40 $0.50 $0.50 $ 0.40/0.50 $ 0.22/0.28 180,000 600,000 2,800,000 1,250,000 1,241,935 352,942 6,424,877 Warrants 14-Sep-06 26-Feb-06 $0.60 $0.90 1,400,000 622,533 2,022,533
Total Diluted Shares 79,820,065 Total Diluted Shares 39,626,544
Balance Sheet Cash 30-Sep-05 $3,674,547 Balance Sheet Cash 30-Sep-05 $1,829,594
Working Capital $3,897,881 Working Capital $1,379,682
Long-Term Debt $0 Long-Term Debt $0
Source: Company Reports
Other Assets
Exall Resources has two additional assets:
?? Three million shares of Southern Star Resources, carried at a book value of $658,000
with a current market value of $4,560,000.
?? Oil and gas properties in Alberta and concessions in the U.K. North Sea carried on the
balance sheet at $3,095,204.
NOTES NOTES NOTES
Company Ticker
Exall Resources Limited EXL-T
Southern Star Resources Inc. SSR-V
I, Andrew Mikitchook, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in this research report.
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