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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: ild who wrote (41871)11/28/2005 5:28:36 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
Danville Update
I went on a tour with my brother over Thanksgiving.
He still lives in Danville.

Much of the "east side" where my dad lives is in obvious decay.
There is actually more industry there than I realized.
For example Alcoa has an aluminum manufacturing plant there. Not sure what they make but it seems like a decent sized plant.
Unfortunately it employs exactly 8 people.

That is all it takes to manage a plant that takes rolled aluminum and stamps it into whatever.

Some of the other plants I thought left are still there too.
They just employ about 10-20% of the workers they used to.
The town is still "growing" (land wise, although shrinking population wise) east and west and north, at a pace I would call Danvillian.

There is a new subdivison started in 1998 (and not a huge one either - perhaps 80 homes or so) that is just now finishing off "phase 1". There is more land there but it has not even been started yet. Prices are at 1998 levels still. The homes mostly all look alike.

I did tour one subdivision that I was not aware existed although it is perhaps 10-15 years old (perhaps less?). There were some houses there in perhaps the 250,000 range that would be 400,000 or more where I now live (Prairie Grove/Crystal Lake) 60012. That neighborhood seemed to be all custom homes or semi custom homes. They all looked different.

The "bargains" are probably in the 15-25K range IF one has some skills to fix them up. They would not be for resale, but for cash-flow positive rent. As I said, much of the East end of town is in decay, but that is a function of aging and upkeep not a function of crime or lack of education.

There is a very small town pair "St. Joseph" and "Odgen" that share a high school, and is located about 15-20 mi from danville, about 6-10 miles from Champaign IL and the U of I. Prices there have skyrocketed in a few short years, from say $125K to $189K in just a few years.

On the way to Danville (taking route 1 south from Kankakee)
one passes thru St.Anne, Watseka, Milton, Hoopston (the self proclaimed sweet corn capital of the world), and Milford. There is not much activity that I can see from Route 1. That is perhaps not a fair assessment as one might need to get off the beaten path. That said, my instincts are that there is nothing happening in vast stretches of Illinois.

When one drives thru Watseka, instead of seeing the time and temperature, they proudly have displayed the price of corn and beans.

Corn: 1.67
Beans 5.25

Now those must be local prices because DEC corn was 1.90 and DEC beans was 5.87 the day I left. Actual spot prices seem to be much lower.

There is a Joan of Arc canning factory in Hoopston.
Lots of seasonal migrant workers as well.

Has anyone seen corn and bean prices?
futuresource.com

futuresource.com

No inflation there!
Corn at 1943 prices in fact.

Amazing

Mish

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