Randall--Bollingers are sometimes useful, but should rarely be used alone as a technical indicator, and certainly not in the current ASND situation. Also, I believe your assessment of past movements relative to the Bollinger Bands is too simplistic. From
February to May of this year ASND spent considerable time beneath the lower BB without successfully breaking above it.
I think it's a mistake to attempt timing the bottom of a situation like this. ASND has crashed through its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and other marektplace considerations make it impossible to predict what will happen when. Stochastics are of course indicating a drastically oversold situation, and are crossing over the MACD line in ways that would normally be bullish, but then don't go anywhere.
Here are some alternatives to consider, depending on your investing/trading style:
1) Longterm investors, if you believe in the company's fundamentals and future fortunes, just buy the damn stock right now <g>, and don't labor over determining the perfect entry point. For believers, this is an incredible buying opportunity.
2) For momentum traders, consider that the vast upside territory is worth patience. Wait for a bottom to be established. I don't mean with esoteric technical indicators, but with a substantial support level anyone can see with a glance at the chart. When this baby corrects, there'll be plenty of time to catch even a small portion of the wave with good results.
3) Call options for traders who believe in the longterm viability of the company, but who don't want to buy common stock--cast your line out past the next two reporting dates, but don't stay that long if you get movement right away. The length of the contract is not so as to milk for higher profits, but to hedge against near-term disaster. If no disaster, take profits as if they were October calls.
4) Daytraders--good luck! <g> Gang moves don't make any difference with this kind of volume. Cut losses quickly when you guess wrong, and try again later.
All the above just one person't humble opinion. No recommendations implied.
-- Brad |
