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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (46279)11/30/2005 1:43:56 AM
From: ild  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Comment from Heinz:

hmmm....i've had an email exchange with Hulbert on the topic of the gold timers, and he was forced to agree with me that their record isn't half bad. specifically, they have called the 2003 low of the year with great precision, and also the end of 2003 top. they also called several other, less important turns.
my theory is that the gold timers are more savvy than the average stock timer on account of having survived a 20 year long secular bear market.
that said, a 50% bullishness rating is actually o.k. - i'd be worried if that number was lower though. in short, this is not really a good contrary indicator. it's very much different with the generalist market timers.
we may here have a case of $500 jitters though, which may not be a bad thing. certainly i have no convincing evidence so far that the rally is over - i think the recent pullback in the gold stocks is only indicating a brief pause. this assessment is of course subject to potential revision - one can never be too sure what a market is going to do. but i'd say it still looks bullish per the balance of probabilities. if we get a sell-off here, i'd expect it to be sharp and quick, i.e. quickly recovered.

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