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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options

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To: Judy who wrote (22937)9/14/1997 9:48:00 PM
From: Tom Trader   of 58727
 
Judy, regarding your posting:

>>I recognize the market is no more stable today than it was yesterday or last week. But given the way bonds and the market closed today, what would it take for your system to generate a "buy" signal for the S&P?<<

The bonds gave a buy signal on Friday and I went long--the S&P futures did not and I am still short. Signals generated by the system are unrelated to the perceived stability or lack thereof of the market.

Under normal circumstances, the type of move that occurred on Friday would have generated a buy signal--however the system factors in volatility and to reduce the possibility of being whip-sawed, the stops move further out in more volatile markets. I went short the Sept S&P futures at 928--saw it go down to 902 and then give up most of the profits after Friday's turnaround. Michael previously pointed out that taking profits earlier may be worthwhile based on signals that he has been following and after what happened to this trade, it certainly bears out what he said. I am still testing the merits of using a trailing stop on at least part of my position--but I don't have conclusive evidence that this is the way to go.

The system requires me to go flat at 928--to achieve a break-even and then go either short or long depending which signal is triggered first. If 928 is not triggered, the system will remain short.

On Monday the system requires a substantial rally to go long--I don't expect it to happen, but if it does, I will post.

Hope you had a good weekend, my dear
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