Less than 100K troops by Nov, 2006?
Let's think about that for a minute.
What has been the strategy of AQ and the insurgents?
1. Make America bleed: financially, in human assets, in stature(though we are doing a pretty good job of slitting our wrists in that respect without their help)
2. Maximum disruption of everything: infrastructure, commerce, political discourse and development.
3. Undermine the "coalition."
4. Recruit
5. Foment civil war.
What has been the effect? All of the above.
Right now, I would say our political process is influenced more by their strategy than it is by any of our internal initiatives.
So why would they quit? In other words, despite the fact that they want us out, why would they make it easy for us? In other words, they will make us pay for every day we are determined to stay and for every day we are determined to leave. Maximum humiliation, maximum cost, maximum pain. Teach Bush a lesson.
So the longer we are there, and the harder "we" try to find a way out, the greater pressure will be applied. Which means that the 700 attacks per week now may well rise to 1000 or more. A year is a long time. Any number of things could happen. Large scale attacks could occur. The nature and ferocity of attacks could escalate. They could become more direct. This means more vulnerability for US troops, greater use of air power for cover, more civilian casualties, even less support from the general population, less territory in our control. Will we resort to harsher tactics? Will there be a massacre a la My Lai? Will the insurgents refocus on the energy infrastructure?
Bush could find himself in a damnable bind between escalating casualties and an even more divided domestic situation with even more strident calls for withdrawal on one hand with calls to nuke the bastards on the other(or some fascimile thereof).
Meanwhile, we could be seeing any number of other events like indictments rolling in on the Abramoff thingy, the Plame thingy, the DeLay biz, etc. It could very well be a disaster for Bush and the Republicans, but if you think the cost of being in Iraq is high now, I think the cost to us of getting out will be even higher, in blood, treasure and stature. |
