Iraqi adviser predicts looming US pull-out
By Roula Khalaf, Middle East Editor
Published: December 1 2005 02:00
Last updated: December 1 2005 02:00
Iraq's national security adviser is predicting that as many as 60,000 US-led coalition troops will be withdrawn by the end of next year, with most of the rest leaving by the end of 2007.
Muaffak al-Rubbaie, a Shia politician who also co-chairs the committee responsible for security transfers to Iraqi forces, told the Financial Times his predictions did not constitute a timetable for withdrawal but a condition-based assessment.
President George W. Bush yesterday rejected a timetable for the return of US troops and said conditions on the ground would determine when forces were pulled out.
But Mr Rubbaie's statements are the clearest indication yet that the Iraqi government that will emerge after the December 15 elections could press for a tentative withdrawal schedule for the nearly 137,000 US troops regularly in Iraq.
He insisted that Iraqi security forces were now ready and capable of taking control of 14 out of Iraq's 18 provinces and suggested the committee, co-chaired by the US, was now drafting an implementation plan for the transfer of security.
Mr Rubbaie emphasised the changing political environment and the recent engagement of Sunni Arabs, who dominate the insurgency but had boycotted the January elections, in the political process. He also insisted that security had improved, saying the conflict had reached a tipping point in recent weeks, with US and Iraqi forces winning the upper hand against the insurgents.
"We're so confident that 30,000 coalition troops will go home in the first part of 2006 and another 30,000 in the second part of the year, and all by the end of 2007," he said. "We're not asking for a timetable but all the signals indicate we may be talking about the departure of most of the multinational forces by the end of 2007."
Mr Rubbaie's statements come during an election campaign in which politicians are keen to emphasise that the unpopular US military presence is ending. He is running on the ticket of the United Iraqi Alliance, the Islamist Shia coalition that won last January's elections, a performance it is hoping to repeat this month.
His assessment raises the prospects that a victory by the UIA could lead to a schedule for withdrawal. The US has won a new United Nations Security Council mandate for its military control in Iraq but a review is due in the middle of next year. Coalition officials say the Iraqi government may then ask for a status of forces agreement, which would determine the level of troops.
An accelerated withdrawal, however, would risk sinking Iraq into civil war. Western diplomats and experts say the Iraqi police force is heavily infiltrated by Islamist Shia militia, some of whom have been accused of torturing and killing Sunni Arab detainees. Military experts also cast doubt on the readiness of military units to lead the fight against insurgents.
Mr Rubbaie estimated that 50 per cent of Iraqi troops - 217,000 police and army forces - were now well trained and ready for combat. "The insurgents, terrorists are now on the run . . . their networks in the north and western part of the country have been disrupted," he said.
But statistics compiled by the Brookings Institution show a far gloomier picture. Anti-coalition attacks have surged in recent months, rising from about 45 each day in March to 100 in October, says Brookings.
American soldiers were also killed at a rate of about three each day in October and November, up from a rate of fewer than two a day in March and April.
In an influential call for complete American withdrawal, pro-military US congressman John Murtha recently cited a continued increase in insurgent activity as the "most important" reason behind his change of heart.
Additional reporting by Peter Spiegel in London
Find this article at:
news.ft.com |
