Poll: More people thinking of leaving Long Island
Poll results indicate high taxes and the cost of owning and maintaining a home on LI have an increasing number of people thinking of leaving
BY KATIE THOMAS
STAFF WRITER
December 1, 2005
More Long Islanders say they are considering moving away amid difficulties paying for the high cost of housing, a new poll has found.
The poll found the biggest jump in those considering leaving Nassau and Suffolk counties came among those the local economy can least afford to lose -- adults in their peak earning years between ages 50 and 64. The results come even as record-low interest rates have decreased homeowners' monthly housing bills, and as regional rental rates have leveled off or even decreased.
"It's just getting to the point that people really are thinking ... is Long Island really worth it?" said Carrie Meek Gallagher, executive director of the Long Island Index, which sponsored the poll.
The poll also found that a majority of residents were satisfied with government services such as schools and sanitation. Yet the respondents singled out high taxes as the most important problem facing Long Island.
Some respondents indicated that they might be open to major changes, including a reduction in government services, consolidating school districts and funding education through income tax.
The poll interviewed 1,215 Long Island residents via telephone over the summer of 2005 and was adjusted to account for age, race, sex and educational levels. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent.
While previous studies have shown that high housing costs are driving Long Islanders to consider leaving, this poll showed an acceleration of the trend, which is reaching deeper into the middle class.
The number of residents who said that it is "somewhat" or "very difficult" to meet monthly housing costs rose from 47 percent last year to 54 percent this year. When it comes to the middle class, defined by the pollsters as families earning between $60,000 and $80,000 per year, the jump was even bigger. More than half, or 56 percent, of residents reported difficulty paying for housing, compared with 41 percent a year ago.
A growing portion are considering leaving Long Island for areas with lower housing costs and property taxes, the poll found. And although the exodus of young people has always been a concern -- in fact, a 1978 Newsday poll found only 27 percent of high school seniors planned to stay on Long Island -- this poll found older residents also are considering moving. Among respondents aged 50 to 64, 37 percent said they were very likely to leave the Island within the next five years, versus 30 percent in 2004. Gallagher said this group may be choosing to cash in their home equity and move to a place where their dollar stretches farther. They also may be following grown children. "This is where Long Island can really get into trouble," Gallagher said. "These people are in their peak earning years" and thus contribute significantly to the local economy.
While anxiety about housing costs is high, it's unclear how well-founded those fears are, said Seth Forman, deputy director of the Long Island Regional Planning Board. He is compiling data for the Long Island Index's annual report, due in January. For example, while property values have skyrocketed in recent years, the vast majority of Long Islanders -- 69 percent, according to this poll -- already own their homes. Low interest rates have led many to refinance their mortgages at better rates. Rental prices across Long Island have either stagnated or slightly decreased in the past three years, he said.
"Long Island has always been high-cost, and people have always been complaining about it," Forman said.
Price hikes for gasoline, food, energy and other expenses make living on Long Island difficult, said Peter Elkowitz, president of the Long Island Housing Partnership, an affordable-housing nonprofit group. "High land value is making people property rich and cash poor," he said.
Elijah Green, a participant in the poll, sees his 79-year-old mother face this dilemma every day. Although her Bellport home is paid for, he said, she has trouble covering her property taxes. When he sees that schools have cut services even as taxes go up, "It don't make no sense," he said.
Many poll participants shared Green's concern. While 73 percent of Long Islanders rated government services such as schools and parks as "good" or "excellent," only 36 percent thought the value of the services they were getting was "good" or "excellent."
"With all the taxes we pay ... our roads should be immaculate," said Paquita Figueroa of Brentwood, another poll participant. Instead, she said she is constantly navigating around potholes. "Where is my money going?"
Some respondents indicated they might be open to changing the tax system. While only 46 percent of Long Islanders supported consolidating current school districts, that number wasn't far from the 48 percent who opposed it.
Respondents reflected concern over this year's school finance scandal with 65 percent rating the quality of local schools "good" or "excellent" versus 75 percent in 2002.The questions about solutions quickly introduced participants to complex issues, so Gallagher cautioned against drawing conclusions. Still, she said, "it means at least they would be open to the possibility."
Google map of Long Island (Courtesy of Google.com)
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Which of the following reasons have prompted you to consider moving away from Long Island?
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Related Documents
Graphic: Poll results (Newsday / Gustavo Pabon)
Nov 30, 2005 (Acrobat file)
newsday.com:/news/local/longisland/ny-liinde1201-g,0,5736302.acrobat?coll=ny-top-headlines
Poll document (Courtesy of Infini Tech) (Acrobat file)
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