Knighty Tin,
Silver hit $50 dollars an ounce on Jan 17, 1980 when the Hunts were buying all they could, but there were big shorts (futures mkt) in power who got the Hunt brothers in the end. A little history:
gold-eagle.com
Now looking at $50 in 1980, that equals about $126 now, according to this calculator:
westegg.com
If silver breaks through 8.50-8.75 range, then 11.50 and 13.50 are likely targets on the weekly and monthly charts.
I started adding to physical silver in 2000 when I decided to buy some silver coins for Christmas presents. Out of five local coin shops listed in the yellow pages, two were out of business and only one of the three other coin shops had any silver coins. And that coin shop only had TWO Silver Dollars!! Now that rang a huge silver bell for this old contrarian!
By 2002 I was buying silver handily under $5.00 an ounce, which I calculate was either under or close to the face value of 1964 coinage using either the approx .70 cost of silver (in a silver dollar) for 1964 or the 1964 1.00 face value of a silver dollar. Currently one 1964 dollar is worth 6.04 in 2005 according to that calculator. Consequently, I believe those 2002 purchases will unlikely to ever lose money.
Currently we are experiencing a shortage of supply compared to demand for silver, similar to what is mentioned the above gold-eagle article during the 70's, even with digital photography replacing film (most film silver is recycled so it has not made that much difference).
So I don't have a problem with $35 or 37.23 for silver, though that may a bit low by the end of the bull move in metals. I will, however, in the case of silver, modify my usual stock trading rule, to sell half on all doubles (close to being there), to selling half on a 300-500% move.
Will I buy more silver now?? Yes, I think I will continue buying under $10, but not enough to really mess up my basis like the Hunt Brothers did nor will I touch the criminals and their futures (the stock market is bad enough!). And no, I will never be foolishly bullish and believe that it won't ever stop going up, but neither will I ever sell it all completely. I doubt that I will ever get to purchase silver in the $4.00-5.00 range again.
Best of luck,
Roebear |
