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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (46436)12/2/2005 11:15:38 AM
From: ild  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Date: Fri Dec 02 2005 11:49
trotsky (@gold's most important battle) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
from a technical PoV, the current stage of the gold bull market is highly significant. when gold surmounted the high of 1996 in the 410's , the final proof that this bull market was different from the cyclical bulls-within-the-secular-bear that had taken place in the 1980-2000 period was in - for the first time since 1980, an important long term high had been taken out ( and subsequently became support ) .
the current stage, revisiting the region of the '83 and '87 highs, may be even more important. the '87 high has stood unviolated for 18 years. if gold manages to break through it convincingly ( even if it breaks back below in a subsequent correction ) , i would regard that as nearly as important as crude oil's break over the $40 barrier. it would definitely open the way for a retest of the September 1980 secondary high in the 740 region, which would then be the last barrier between the current level and the old all time high.
the market has an elephant memory - the older a resistance level, the more important it is from a technical perspective.
conversely to the above, a failure to break the '87 high would be at least an intermediate term negative.
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