WHO website:
Since December 2003, highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses have swept through poultry populations across Asia and parts of Europe. The outbreaks are historically unprecedented in scale and geographical spread. Their economic impact on the agricultural sector of the affected countries has been large. From December 2003 to mid-July 2005, outbreaks of avian influenza A(H5N1) in poultry occurred in nine countries (Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Thailand and Viet Nam). Since late July 2005, outbreaks in domestic poultry as well as wild birds have been reported in the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan and Mongolia. Three contiguous WHO regions – Western Pacific, South-East Asia and Europe – now have H5N1 activity in wild fowl and poultry stocks. Evidence shows that the H5N1 virus is most likely endemic in many parts of Asia. It has established an ecological niche in poultry, making it extremely difficult to control outbreaks. Outbreaks have recurred despite aggressive control measures, including the culling of more than 140 million poultry as of September 2005.
Human cases, with an overall fatality rate around 50%, have been reported in Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam. The majority of human infections occur sporadically, although a cyclical pattern might be emerging. Increased infection of humans comes in winter months, November to March, with a smaller increase around July to September. Almost all human infections can be linked to contact with infected poultry, but isolated instances of inefficient human-to-human transmission may have occurred in Viet Nam in 2004, and possibly in Thailand and Indonesia.
wpro.who.int
Map showing the spread of the avian flu:
wpro.who.int
Has feared mutation of avian flu arrived?
Doctors in Thailand, Indonesia see
1st signs of human-to-human spread
Posted: December 2, 2005
10:10 p.m. Eastern
WorldNetDaily.com
Officials in at least two nations now suspect the avian flu bug has mutated into a virus that is being transmitted from human to human – a development world health authorities have estimated could result in the deaths of tens of millions.
Thai health officials have expressed concern that the country's two latest confirmed victims may be the beginning of the much feared human-to-human transmission.
Dr. Charoen Chuchottaworn, an avian-flu expert at the Public Health Ministry, said doctors reviewing the cases were alerted by the very mild symptoms present in both patients, neither of whom had had any recent contact with birds or poultry.
The doctors are unsure as to how either of the infected contracted the disease and have raised the possibility that the virus has traded its pathogenicity for ease of transmission.
Meanwhile, in Indonesia, the disease is spreading so rapidly, particularly in the capital of Jakarta, some health officials strongly suspect the long-dreaded mutation has already occurred.
"There are just too many people who have it," said one doctor. "In many cases, it is difficult to establish any contact with birds."
Another official said the flu has "spread all over the city."
(snip)
If the virus acquires sufficient human genes, allowing transmission from one person to another, an estimated 2 million to 7.4 million people around the world could die, the WHO estimates.
Some health officials make even more dire predictions. They point to the great flu pandemic of 1918-1919, which killed far more people worldwide than died in World War I – an estimated 40 to 50 million people.
There are more signs the virus is spreading – outward from Asia and through Europe. Romania appears to be the hardest hit.
Three more villages in eastern Romania have been quarantined following the discovery of an H5 strain of avian influenza in poultry in one of the villages. The Romanian Ministry of Agriculture suspects the presence of bird flu in the other villages but is awaiting confirmation of test results from the United Kingdom....
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