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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: byhiselo who wrote (126664)	12/3/2005 10:33:40 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) of 209892

Sorry for putting this in a seperate post, ran out of time in editing the first reply. give me a 20 handle for the start of a new bull market, not 100+ An SPX:VIX ratio of 20 with SPX at 1250 implies a VIX of over 60. A VIX of 60 implies a Black Monday event (and I do mean THE Black Monday) is expected to occur every 4 weeks. Never in the entire history of the market has there ever been a period even close to matching that criteria. Put another way...VIX in its familiar form is being expressed as an annual percentage, but it is also expressable as a daily percentage. An annual VIX of 60% is equivalent to a daily VIX of ~4%. A daily VIX of 4% means the market is pricing in the expectancy of 4% moves each and every single day. Put together, your statement above is saying that if the market was gyrating 50 SPX points a day you would consider it a buyable bottom and a suitable start to a bull market. Is that really what you think? I'm not asking that in a "gee that's stupid" way, I am asking in full sincerity and in genuine interest of how others view the market.

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