I don't think the polls for 08, quite frankly, mean much right now, Dale.
Hillary will have to win another term in the Senate in 06 and do so convincingly to be a serious candidate for the Dem nomination in 08. If she does retain her seat and do so strongly, then the polls will begin to make more sense.
As for who is likely to get either nomination, it's genuinely hard to get a grasp. Though Hillary seems to lead in all the Dem polls, and by large margins, again, I think it's too early to tell much. Her negatives are high but I've never seen them broken apart to see just which segments of the population are involved. And how durable that might be.
As for the Reps, as I've typed here before, I don't think either Guiliani or McCain will get the nomination. The far right wing of the party has too much of a hold on the nomination process. And neither, at least at the moment, are acceptable. Both will probably do proper obeisance to the far right power brokers between now and primary times but they will succeed only if that faction of the party cannot find a minimally acceptable candidate from their own ranks--a George Allen, Brownback, etc.
I think the Harriet Meiers stuff indicated the far right of the Rep party has had it with delaying tactics. They want what they want right now. |
