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Technology Stocks : INFORMATION ANALYSIS (IAIC) - YEAR 2000 Date Remediation
IAIC 4.280+12.3%Dec 16 4:00 PM EST
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To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (872)9/15/1997 7:56:00 AM
From: Matthew F. Kern   of 2011
 
Sid:

What is TRUE here is that we have no data on the scenarios that Newby or IAIC has run, other than one feeble article with an extreme negative bias. What we need is more data from IAIC and Newby.

I take the Newby comment to set a low end estimate of revenues at $200 Mill. Wide variation may be expected. A reasonable bound at the upper end is not yet clear. Again, this is because the data has not been published. This may be more due to the capraciousness of the press than any desire to hide such data, or lack of data on the part of IAIC or Newby.

Estimates in a startup effort like this are hard. Some reasonable conservative guess, perhaps with supporting data, is what we might hope for. Margin will vary from such a guess as will revenue, minimums are the key. 4Q figures would help. 1998 figures are most important. 3Q figures might be nice but will quickly be OBE.

I am certain, knowing the culture and people at IAI, that many revenue scenarios have been run. The confidence they have in such scenarios may be low, as the variation will be wide. IAI is very conservative on accounting and any commitments they make, and will hestiate to publish figures in a high growth period like this. What Newby has is less certain to me.

In the absence of any news organization distributing the honest data, which may or may not yet exist, we will hve to call and ask. Newby and Company: (301) 881 3660

....................Matt
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