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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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From: Ramsey Su	12/8/2005 8:56:25 AM
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G.R.E.B.B. DAY UPDATE - Feb 1, 2006 List of events leading up to GREBB DAY: Subprime recast reset. FDIC, OTS, OCC and Fed guidelines for underwriting. 3-1 ARMs recast. Normal ARMs adjustments. ABS markets tapped out. GSE regulations. Consumer credit cost increasing. FED borrowing putting more pressure on rates. Default and delinquency news. Increased layoffs in mortgage, construction and RE sectors. Huge heating bills for MacMansions. Credit card debt from christmas mania, 4% vs 2% min payment. Spike in real estate for sale inventory after holidays. Big trouble with a key player (spec builder, hedge fund or lender). Huge announced treasury borrowing for 1st calendar qtr 2006. FCBs fail to show up to an auction such as this week's 5-10 year for $21 billion in new money, or an agency (spreads are slowly rising). Monetary policies to counter G.R.E.B.B. FOMC meeting 1/30/06 - Stop raising fed fund rate, soften tone. Fiscal policies to counter G.R.E.B.B. None. No fiscal policies can be formulated as political battles escalate for election year.

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