Take a close look to what I follow, not the headlines like you posted, but instead the facts.
Housing as I posted will be down across the US next year and then will increase in 2007. Toll Brothers expects record numbers in 2007.
Dec 8, 2005 — NEW YORK (Reuters) - Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. <TOL.N> on Thursday cut its profit outlook for the current year and put its forecast for 2007 in doubt, citing the nation's slowing housing market and increasing difficulty in obtaining regulatory approval to build.
Toll's lowered forecast, which it signaled last month in a company statement, came a day after a profit forecast from rival Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. <HOV.N> disappointed Wall Street. Hovnanian reported hurricane-delayed construction, labor and material shortages, and delays in getting building permits.
Robert Toll, chief executive of the home builder, which also posted a better-than-expected 70 percent jump in quarterly earnings on Wednesday, echoed what economists, analysts and other home building executives acknowledge: The U.S. housing boom is losing steam.
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"It appears that the housing market is not as robust today as it was throughout 2004 and through the summer of 2005, although there is wide variation in local markets," as interest rates rise and homes sit on the market longer, said Robert Toll.
"Many believe the deceleration in price growth was inevitable as the increases of 2004 and most of 2005 were not sustainable and were fueled, in part, by speculation," he said.
For the fiscal year ending October 31, 2006, Toll forecast earnings of $4.79 to $5.27 per share, down from a previous view of about $5.74 a share.
Analysts' average forecast is $5.26 per share, according to Reuters Estimates. Analysts cut their forecasts after the company's warning on earnings last month.
Toll sees fiscal 2006 revenue of $6.65 billion to $7.25 billion and expects to sell 9,500 to 10,200 homes at an average price of $670,000 to $680,000 each.
For 2007, the company said it still expects record demand but that "results could prove better or worse than the previous guidance we gave of 20 percent growth."
Toll issued its 2006 and 2007 outlook as it reported fiscal fourth-quarter profit of $310.3 million, or $1.84 per share, up from $180.6 million, or $1.11 per share, a year earlier. The company posted revenue of $2.02 billion. |
