TJ, 20 years ago in my BP incarnation I was ogling Trinidad gas as a potentially excellent source of methanol to fuel the USA highways. Exporting aluminium to China, or aluminum to the USA, or methanol to both is more convenient and cheaper than shipping LNG around the world. <Anyway, once the smelter is up and running, a lot of Trinidad and Venezuelan energy will be exported to China in aluminium ingot form, and so Canadian gas will be more expensive as less LNG is loaded from Trinidad to everywhere, mostly north, and so our natural gas shares ought to rise in value, along side our gold, and stuff. A sort of win-win-win triple play :0)>
I like a win-win-win-win-win-Winn situation. As you say, being up close and personal is much more fun than watching a win-win-win-win-win...etc situation while being stuck somewhere else. That's like living in Mao's China while peering over the fence at Hong Kong and more so New Zealand. No wonder people were so keen to escape. They are still wanting to get out, though plenty are now doing okay.
On the economics of energy, I suspect it's better to export methanol from Trinidad than aluminium. Aluminium should be produced from electricity which can be produced in China via nuclear power. Bauxite and uranium can go from Australia to China. But until there is sufficient demand for methanol, that's pie in the sky, and meanwhile aluminium is wanted now.
Which leads to the conclusion that not many people are thinking there's really an energy shortage for the long run. Fuel cells and methanol are still wayyyyyyy in the future. Crude oil producers can easily undercut methanol as a vehicle fuel.
Meanwhile, the Natural TRADE, OBVIOUS Exchange, Apparent Wager, and Sure Bet is to ship bauxite to Trinidad, cook it with gas, ship aluminium to China, and presumably reclaim land using the residue to protect against CO2-induced sea level rise. Thanks for the CO2! It will help crops grow in NZ, which can be sold to China.
China can produce aluminium-based products for me to buy.
Everyone happy.
Mqurice |
