ski, mc, and kc:
Thanks so much to all of you for your helpful thoughts about AMGN. If it were just the common, I wouldn't be feeling "discomfort" (as you aptly put it mc <g>), but it's my January calls that have made me impatient with AMGN's inability to "get a move on".
By the way, kudos to JoaT who nailed AMGN months ago:
>>...shows it stalling around 84.75...<<
Message 21688996
I've thought about that post a bunch of times, and boy do I wish I had listened! <g>
You all seem to pretty much be in sync. In the larger time frame that you mentioned ski, we would now be in C of 4. This wave could, indeed, go down to the 71 area that you've mentioned mc. In addition to the 200 SMA region, this would also be the approximate bottom of the July gap. I'm still a novice in terms of E-wave (and could be completely incorrect here), but it seems that under this scenario, the best one could hope for is a ii up of C? I guess if you squint, we could currently be in a iii down with a iv up to come(?) -- but that seems unlikely. Assuming it's an upcoming ii up of C, price would presumably go no further than $84.50 on this go-around? This would also correspond nicely to the wave count that you had kckip with your five count wave being wave 3 that ski mentioned from the low of Oct. 2004 and the current correction to which you referred being ski's wave 4.
Here's my attempt at charting it:
stockcharts.com[r,a]dfclyyay[d20040902,20051210][pb50!b200!d20,2!b20!f][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lk14!lp14,3,3!li5,3,3!lg!lyb20,2.0][J64515342,Y]&pref=G
By the way mc, puts sound like a very nice idea as a hedge. Thank you for suggesting it.
What I really want is for AMGN to reverse here at 78 and go parabolic -- heck with the wave count! ;-) Could you all start buying in mass and make it happen??? :-)
Now I'm speculating, but it seems that the only way (wavewise) that a MAJOR move up could occur right now is if wave A of wave 4 in the above chart is actually ALL of wave 4 (reaching a low of $73.13 in Oct. 2005) with the next move up to $84.50 in Nov. being i of 5. That would make AMGN currently in ii of 5. I suspect I may be breaking a slew of E-wave rules there -- so feel free to correct any errors on my part. (The B wave of 4 on the daily would be quite tiny here which makes me wonder if this count is even an option. On the weekly, it's clearly not an option as there's no B of the alleged 4 to be found.) Also, if AMGN falls below $73.13 -- this scenario would be out the window. With those caveats in mind, here's my "Wishful Thinking" AMGN count:
stockcharts.com[r,a]dfclyyay[d20040901,20051210][pb50!b200!d20,2!b20!f][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lk14!lp14,3,3!li5,3,3!lg!lyb20,2.0][J64512521,Y]&pref=G
Viable? Not viable?
A big thank you to each of you for taking the time to share your TA as well as your encouragement and good wishes. It's very much appreciated. And it's nice to know that ultimately, you all seem to favor a reversal in the 70s. Let's hope it's the high 70s. <g> |
