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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: carranza2 who wrote (150425)12/10/2005 1:07:56 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (1) of 793800
 
Very interesting article, c2. But my question is on the framing of the study: who are these "experts" and were they selected (or self-selected) for knowledge or entertainment value? If the latter, who should expect them to predict well? If the former, who can test if they really qualify?

This is very much like the studies of Wall Street which concluded that the experts did no better than dart throwing; therefore the whole thing must be a random walk.

To which my answer is: Yet Warren Buffet exists.

Just because "the experts" aren't really experts, doesn't mean that there is no such thing as expertise. The more interesting question, to my mind, is: can you find any person or persons among these studied "experts" whose prectictions actually had a good chance of coming true?
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