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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: mishedlo who wrote (45592)12/10/2005 2:44:35 PM
From: marginmikeRead Replies (5) of 306849
 
Mish, I have been a housing bear......for ever. It is troubling that every real estate broker, developer, investor etc has turned massivly bearish over the last 3 months. I mean a sea change from bull to bear that I havent seen in aa LOOOONG time. It makes me wonder thats all...As a contrarian, and a gold bug, and someone who believes fiat money is being debassed that it is an interesting hypothesis to think that housing and stocks are going to have another gigantic run starting in 07. That run may be insignifigent in current dollar terms, but could still be profitible. I dont believe this will happen, but have to be open to all possibilities. Gold going up, with every comodity(land is also a comodity IMHO) is telling us something.......As a contrarian when sentiment shifts very quickly in one direction from a prevailing view then I have to take note(I have made to much money in the past with this type of analysis). That being said I still expect a hard pullback in Real Estate before it pushed higher, maybee the market just shuts down and prices really get hit then reverse upo quickly. The only thing going for bears in the sentiment camp is that everyone thinks ITS OVER but we will only get modest drop... Maybee we get a quick plunge(1-2 year give back) then return on our merry way up. Just throwing it out there, as I havnt formulated a view yet.
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