Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: ild who wrote (42549)	12/10/2005 3:29:15 PM
From: chainik	Read Replies (2) of 116555

<<I use two: COTs and Rydex>> I pay attention to COT for major indexes, but after using gold COT for a number of years, I am starting to doubt its usefulness. Commercials are short about 190 K contracts - pretty close to the largest short position in years. Does it mean "sell"? When POG goes to $1000, commercials are likely to be shorter. Would it be another "sell"? IMO, COT is useful in a range-bound market (like the one we had for the most part of the last two years), but in a strong uptrend commercials will probably sell more and more as POG goes up. On a positive side, small speculators don't care, Rydex looks OK to me (although I am betting on a short-term top right now), Hulbert's numbers suggest some pessimism among gold timers, P/Cs on major miners and on XAU are trending up. Does not look like a major peak.

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