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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (46983)12/10/2005 3:50:21 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
There are enough FDIC insured big players in the toxic lending market that at the margin this will be impacted. And even the slightest credit spasm, on word of increasing deliquencies, will be magnified. I am amazed that the steady credit deterioration reported by outfits like CFC is just largely ignored. Do people think that if (big if) the Fed and FCBs halt rate increases that this will stop?
Message 21955123

That's significant, because I feel we are at the juncture where one more push like this will really tank housing and by extension credit. There are already ominous signs in bank lending in the last several months (*), 4Q looks dicey for credit growth. Now if I could just collaborate this lending evidence with that pesky high MBA purchase index. There are still too many transactions to call the credit and housing Bubble dead yet. Even so, it looks wounded, as we are seeing more reports double digit price declines now, versus low single in the fall.
Message 21959140

(*)
HELOCS:
08/03/2005 439.3
11/30/2005 436.1

Consumer:
09/14/2005 721.8
11/30/2005 705.8

Real estate, sputtering:
11/09/2005 2858.3
11/16/2005 2853.8
11/23/2005 2863.5
11/30/2005 2861.4
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