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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (126978)	12/13/2005 2:13:43 PM
From: oexchaos	Read Replies (1) of 209892

WLD, You OUGHT to place some credence in these polls. They are predictive. It's important to contextualize the data, however. My experience is that the opinion pollees, interestingly, tend to be right at least part of the day 62% of the time. The Actual position poll, if you look at, tells you a lot. Like how many are FULLY long and FULLY short. I've used this data to great effect. A highly confident short position is far more important than a "bearish" opinion that only results in a cash position. I'm not blowing smoke on this data. You can check the archives and examine it yourself (all the polls are neatly archived in one place). One Caveat, the Fearless Forecasters are fairly active and sophisticated traders. They change their opinion pretty quickly. That's why they tend to be right short term and why they have to be leaning pretty hard in one direction or another to be predictive of a turn. Anyway, the raw data is available at www.traders-talk.com (registration required to control yeahoos and there's a good privacy policy--I made it). Best, Mark Young WallStSentiment.com

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