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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH
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To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (718059)12/13/2005 3:15:07 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) of 769670
 
The article restated some of what I've been arguing for a long time here... 1) we cannot stand in the way of history or nationalism... if Sunnis/Shi'a/Kurds wish to find a new destiny for their peoples in a looser federation, or even in separate states, that is their right. 2) the Kurds are not going to give up on their dreams of freedom and independance... and they will remain strong allies for the US. 3) hopefully the Iraqi Shiites will desire to maintain some independence from the Iranians --- though likely leaning on them for support against the Sunnis, and the Sunnis are most likely to affiliate themselves with the Sunnis in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Gulf States. 4) The Iraqi Sunnis are not strong enough to prevail in a civil war --- so the sooner we are extricated from the sticky situation there, the sooner the locals are likely to resolve political matters themselves. 5) the Jihadists (Sunnis largely) are likely to be given the boot by the locals (who *don't* want foreigners interferring in their affairs) just as soon as the Allied forces are out... they are mostly used only as 'shock troops'. Iraq will *not* become a 'new Afghanistan'... so long as we don't try to stay for years more and give them a rallying cry.

All good points that you make. The thing about the article by Nir Rosen.......is that its written by an insider. He's been there....throughout the country. He knows of what he writes.......not like Bush or Rice or Cheney who are getting their info second or third hand. He isn't flying into Baghdad International and then being helicoptered to a meeting site in Baghdad and then helicoptered back out to the airport. Nothing that glib. He is living and breathing Iraq.

So he can say with confidence that the civil war has already started between the Sunnis and Shia.......as evidenced by the foreign press which has been reporting the same for months. He can cut through the nonsense about the Kurds and how they are liking the current arrangement by stating unequivocably that they will form their own state asap. On and on, he discredits all the current talking points.

When you get done with his article, you realize that all this yammer about us not leaving right now is unreasonable.......if you didn't know that already. And if Bush et al don't agree, well we'll just have to get more persuasive. ;`)
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