Perhaps I'm misunderstanding you, but from what I'm reading, I'm utterly flummoxed and am lead to believe that you have little experience actually trading real money.
If a person woke up every day and said "today the market will be up intraday" they will have a higher hit rate than your 60%. The bottom line is that your polling data lowers the chance of being right by about a quarter. If one can, as you claim, make money with a 60% hit rate, I can only imagine the riches that must flow from having an 85% hit rate.
For those who are interested, any decent trader can make money with a 60% hit rate, and if he's got good money management and the right system, he can do well with a 50% hit rate or even less. That's just the facts. That points up the importance of money management, which is matter for discussion elsewhere.
With regard to "hypothetical performance" we do have trading models with hypothetical performance. It's real time, but if I'm not trading it (and there are reasons for that, like legal and regulatory), I don't want anyone thinking that I am. We DO however, run real money for folks and we do pretty well, too. I try to keep those trades differentiated from published trades, save in the mutual funds.
Those who have an interest can listen or read here:
equityguardiangroup.com
Meanwhile, DO check out the sentiment over on Fearless Forecasters. It IS valuable to those who know how to use it. You can learn or not, but ignore it at your peril.
Mark Young |
