The New Economy and its Winners Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (26613)	12/14/2005 12:12:21 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (3) of 57684

I have 3 indicators that help me call major Bear markets. The first is extreme deflation as measured by the PPI. The second is ultrahigh PE ratios. And the third is an inverted yield curve. None of these at present is giving a bear signal. So, I have no reason to be bearish at the present time. As for Google, my view is that its share price will continue to move further into the stratosphere as long as its current growth rate is maintained. But beware if its long term growth rate slows. All the big MO MO players will then get off the train. There is always a group of stocks that have speculative merit. But I've always viewed the Nasdaq and especially Tech, fundamentally speaking, primarily as a Growth index. The Bears expect consumer spending to take a free-fall in early 2006 due to higher rates. Haven't we heard that one before? However, the savings rate has now turned negative and the consumer can no longer use his or her home as an ATM machine. Will the possible shortfall here be made up through an increase in capex? Bernanke is on board to monetize the debt, which is extremely positive. On the interest rate front, no way do I see the Fed raising rates again unless crude oil continues to rally and hits new highs, along with heating oil and natural gas. What concerns me most is a possible confrontation with Iran. This dude is a real psycho of the highest order: news.yahoo.com If the US does go to war with Iran, I see at least a 15%-20% correction. But that's a worse case scenario. We had a secular bull market in the S@P from August 1980 to March 2000. That is 19.5 years or 234 months. The full corrective process should take approximately 1/3 the length of the previous bull, which is 78 months or 6.5 years. That would place the official beginning of the next secular bull around October 2006. The only problem with that view is that the NDX basically crashed by over 80% in a short period of time and represents very good value here as long as growth holds up somewhat before the Fed starts easing again. In short: Unless the yield curve inverts, I'm looking for a slow down but no recession. 1%-2% growth by the spring/summer 2006 with the Fed beginning to lower rates represents a soft landing and is quite bullish. It is 1995 revisited.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next