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Politics : WAR on Terror. Will it engulf the Entire Middle East?
SPY 659.03+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: 2MAR$ who wrote (10679)12/14/2005 8:17:05 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) of 32591
 
Definitely an interesting read.

But Iran is not Depression era Germany.. and Ahmadinejad might perceive himself a "man of destiny" but his military power is clearly lacking to sustain such a belief.

At most, he can wage a guerilla war in Iraq. That's about as far as Iran can project their military power with any confidence. And too many Gulf States will align against them should they launch a conventional invasion of Iraq should all US troops be withdrawn.

THAT SAID. He does have the potential of creating a situation where Shi'a Arabs feel more protected until the "guardian wing" of the Persians than they might currently feel. But believe it or not, Muqtada Al Sadr is no lap-dog of the Persians. While he might be an unsavory character, he's an Arab, and shares the same desire that Al Sistani does (or so information leads us to believe) to prevent Persian domination of the Shi'a holy sites.

So the level of influence Iran actually has may be limited by the Shi'a Arab willingness to take direction.. Of course, they'll certainly take their weapons and training, but political patsies, I don't believe they'll become.

Presently, I'm more concerned about the growing belief that the Ba'thists are behind Zarqawi's groups, using them to kick the legs out from under the current regime so that the Former Regimists can return to power as "saviors".

Hawk
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