"Kurdish Oil Deal Shocks Iraq's Political Leaders"
It was inevitable. It was smart for them to do it quickly, though. It is very difficult for Turkey to do anything right now with the US in country. It also might be a spoke in the wheel of Iran, I don't think they have seriously factored in what a more o less independent Kurdistan means. Syria knows, but they don't dare do anything or both Turkey and Iran lands on them with both feet.
So, I like it. This is the first stabilizing event to have happened in that area in a long time. What Kurdistan needs is a sponsor. One that anybody interested in forcing the issue would hesitate in pissing off. The US would be a good candidate, but there is little reason to hope for rational policy from this administration. That leaves the EU. Or, as Dr. Niall Furgeson calls it, Eurabia. Which describes perfectly the problem that Kurdistan has. While the EU would be a natural to turn to, they are so focussed on their own often petty issues that they are less able than the US to see the big picture. If Kurdistan is smart, and this action and the compromise they offered shows they have at least someone who can walk and chew gum at the same time, they will mount a PR campaign in the EU. Norway is a nominal member of the EU, so that can be used. But, by sponsoring Kurdistan, that would be a poke in the eye of Turkey, and a pretty safe one. While most of the people in the EU don't like it, sooner or later they will have to accept Turkey in the EU. It makes too much long term sense. Not only are they a lot of Turkish nationals in the EU, their economy is in pretty good shape and they offer a bridge to the significant Muslim populations that are becoming common in Europe. Better the Turkish model than the sectarian model that most of the other Muslim countries offer. So by sponsoring Kurdistan, they can offer sop to the anti-Turkey constituents, put Turkey on the hot seat, and yet offer a way to eventually taking Turkey in if they toe the line. Which, at this point, Turkey has little choice. |
