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Non-Tech : The Woodshed
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To: NOW who wrote (35733)12/16/2005 6:54:19 AM
From: TheSlowLane  Read Replies (3) of 60912
 
tooearly - imho, what MacLellan will demonstrate is the shortcoming of applying technical analysis unencumbered by any fundamental analysis. I am doubtful that a billion Chinese (or hundreds of millions of Indians) will have the benefit of that article. Too bad for them that they won't know that it's all over.

To trotsky's point that Eva just shared with us "...the reason in both cases seems to be the lack of public participation in these markets", it seems to me that there are two possible explanations that I got an ICI* reading of zero earlier this week. The first is that they are even ahead of MacLellan and have moved on to the next bull market. The second is that they are not even aware of the moves in the metals.

Considering that the ICI has been flatlining at zero all the way up to the meeting this week, I have to eliminate the first possibility. So...if the second explanation is correct AND if MacLellan is correct, then this will be an anomaly of a bull market in that it never had a Phase II or Phase III. I thought blowoff tops were associated with manias. I ain't seen any manias lately and certainly not among the wider investing public.

Finally...the "this is all so confusing" comment that I made was tongue in cheek. I am not confused at all, I see things very much as does Dr. Appel. That said, I am not 100% sure I am correct, but I am confident enough in that perspective to stay committed to stay in my positions. I was referring to the whipsaw that will result from reading the spectrum of opinions and then trying to act on them.

Meanwhile...oh goody, silver over 8.50 and gold over 500...maybe we get a small respite today?

* ICI = Investment Club Index - the percentage of time devoted by my investment club to discussing precious metals. The ICI is an anecdotal sentiment indicator.
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