As I stated, I am very concerned about the dollar and have been for several years. I consider it essential to diversify not only into different currencies but also where my funds are held.
As a result, I opened brokerage and bank accounts in Germany and Switzerland. I also opened an account with XETrade (www.xe.com) to cost effectively transfer money between the various accounts and currencies. To trade in currencies and currency futures, I use a FOREX account.
As to the McClellan analysis, I don't take it too seriously because it ignores the fundamentals that I consider in justifying my personal PM investments.
Additionally, here is an interesting review of the McClellan points from a technical perspective by a knowledgeable poster from Kitco.
Date: Fri Dec 16 2005 15:12
AU_NB (McClellan Report - DYODD) ID#115252:
Copyright © 2002 AU_NB All rights reserved
The latest McClellan Market Report was posted today on 321gold. It's conclusions are that a blowoff of gold HAS OCCURRED ALREADY. It's advice is DO NOT HOLD OR BUY GOLD for some time:
"The blowoff top we have just seen in gold should mark the end of the up move, and now the expectation is for most of those gains to be erased over the coming weeks and months. Inflation and rising interest rates will still be with us for another 15 months, in response to this gold spike. Resist the temptation to buy gold as a hedge against that coming inflation, as that opportunity is already passed."
321gold.com
The report is based upon a comparison of the present market action with two prior run ups in gold ( August 1993 and February 1996 ) . It was also based on a chart showing gold cash price compared to its 50 day range.
First, the 50 day range indicator DOES NOT SHOW what it claimed to show or is implied to show.
1. When the indicator peaks, it does not necessarily indicate that price will not continue to rise.
2. It does not show that the current action has already peaked.
3. It does not show that the reading on a scale for the indicator is necessarily indicative of a top in price. Specifically. the second example chosen for similarilty to present action did not peak anywhere near the top of the scale as is implied by the chart. A peak in the 50 day range scale can only be seen "after the fact," and even a peak does not guarantee that price will fall as implied.
kitcomm.com
kitcomm.com
To me, it is significant that the examples chosen to support the conclusion are both corrective rises in the 20 year Bear market in Bullion. I do not think that a corrective rise in a bear market and FOLLOWED by a continuation of price activity IN THE DIRECTION OF THE DOWN TREND logically should be compared to Uptrend movement to predict anything about a possible corrective trend in that upward move. Yet that is what was done.
Actually, one can say that the only apparent rationale behind the conclusion is the price movement upward recently has been rapid. That certainly also would be consistent with a continued move to the upside if "something is different."
Whether that occurs we await to see. But the technical analysis purportedly relied TO SUPPORT the conclusions of the report do not do so, imo.
Personally, I am disappointed.
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