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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.04

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4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (27514)	12/18/2005 7:02:26 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95638

Hi RtS, All excellent thoughts. I appreciate your conservative view. I'm not sure on can take a credible view on the naz 100. With the unseasoned addition of Goog and 11 others - I'm thinking like a criminal here - but I think the options expration plus the resuffling had a lot to do with the volume spike. It also could well be a set up for the NAZ to get a power boost and get back its tech is good reputation vs lagging sadly for the last 5-6 years. Think about the set up -its all but perfect.Add a hugely successful stock that will power the tech sector/Naz to new highs and watch the MOMOM games all over - just as most tech companies have finally completed their right sizing and excess capacity has finally been burned up. Add to that : All game boxes are introing new updates with greater quality. Msft intros Vista - a very long awaited new version. Intel crates a new memory firm with Micron - a serious effort to upgrade the speed of mamory and also intros multiple processors and dual memory. Then they redifine wireless with Wi Max - all of which they'll sneak into the world at no extra cost after you buy the top of the line MPU. Throw in a buildout of 3G phones after camera phones have been wildly acccpted. Looks to me like a perfect storm brewing. Not hard at all to envision a shakeout before lift off (that's always to be expected and in fact hoped for. Glabalization continues to add demand for low end products as high end products continue to add new enabling capabilities never before seen. Doesn't look like a top to me - looks like an expected and certainly more volatile shakeout - but new highs are not far off as I see it. I do not see neww lows or the big bear scenario. What I do see is moderste fast dips that appear to be bear markets all over again and then traps that fuel faster whipllashes to new highs as tech once again proves it is the greatest wealth drivewr globally. Afterall it has been 6 years for new enabling technology to once again show the world what fast growth is all about. Heck I could be wrong - but the timing looks right and the technology has evolved. We have a good dial;ogue here and an open mind is a good thing. I thank you for your conservative viewpoint as it is very valid. Bob Some where in between there we should make some money.GG SMH is still looking good and ADX crossover still favors a possible last run. stockcharts.com[w,a]daoanyay[dc][pb33!b50!f][vc60][iLh14,3!Ll14]&pref=G IT COULD VERY WELL DETERIORATE,but it could also bounce and give us a clue on a rotational leadership intot he next rally. Time will tell.

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