TD, I basically agree with your assessment. I'm not sure what EMEA thinks, but I've read the FDA briefing documents, and I saw no signs of concern to speak of from the FDA reviewers who penned them (have not seen the AC transcript, I should probably dig that up). So my take is that the labeling restrictions are not going to be very onerous. Nevertheless, competitors such as Lilly/Amylin will likely try to play the pulmonary function card when Exubera launches, so like you, I expect slow, but steady acceptance.
Given that backdrop of slow, steady acceptance, I expect slow, steady share price appreciation -- for a biotech, meaning there will be some volatility in the uptrend. Thus, I think this makes a pretty good long term covered call candidate, and that is how I am playing it.
Cheers, Tuck |
