Kos Pharmaceuticals, Inc (KOSP) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Kos Pharmaceuticals, Inc (KOSP)

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From: tom pope	12/19/2005 8:06:43 AM
	of 118

This first came out on Friday, missed it then. From Merrill: Estimate Change; “New” Niaspan Threat from MRK Niaspan Threat from Merck Kos shares were very weak recently, as Merck unexpectedly disclosed, for the first time, that it is developing two cholesterol products that could threaten Kos' Niaspan franchise. We are maintaining our Neutral rating as we believe it is premature to speculate on the magnitude of this potential threat. Merck Could Market in 2008/09 The products Merck is developing could potentially reach the market in 2008/09, and, if approved, would compete with Kos' Niaspan and the Niaspan/simvastatin (Zocor) combo. Niaspan and the combo could generate more than 70% of Kos' sales and profits in 2009. Merck has not presented clinical data for its products in a medical forum, so we cannot make comparisons at this point. Adjusted Sales and EPS Est. on Recent IMS Prescription trends Separately, we have adjusted (lowered) our sales and EPS estimates for Kos in 4Q:05 and beyond based on recent IMS prescription trends. Our new estimates assume that Niaspan share re-accelerates from current levels, and it is worth noting that our 2008/09 estimates do not reflect potential competition from Merck.

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