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Biotech / Medical : Encysive Pharmaceuticals (ENCY)
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To: tuck who wrote (7)12/19/2005 2:36:07 PM
From: rkrw  Read Replies (2) of 205
 
I don't think there's any reason to think remodoulin won't work well in earlier stage patients. The problem is the therapy is so invasive it's a later resort.

I wasn't aware the inhaled remodoulin was from an ardm device. I stopped following ardm a long time ago.

Ventavis is doing well, better than expected. But a lot of people see inhaled remodoulin as the major risk if it works better, requires less puffs per day and is more portable. There's a lot of noise coming out of uthr but I'm still not sure how it measures up.

Thelin efficacy seems identical to tracleer. Tracleer has a strong brand name and a lot of real life usage. So my guess would be thelin is a strong competitor but overtaking tracleer won't happen overnight. Maybe somewhat better than cialis vs viagra, 30% market share after a couple of years?

I don't think selling will be a problem. Doesn't take a ton of reps or budget and I'd bet a bunch of them will be ex-actelion. The problem is more it's a 500M market (with good growth) and will be sliced 3 ways, so it's now looking like thelin at 200M per year (30% share) would be considered a success, 300-400M (50%) would be a HR. It also becomes a game of finding promising new indications.

I'm a big believer in eps modeling at this stage, what's does a low/middle/best case scenario show?
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