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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse

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To: SiouxPal who wrote (3370)	12/20/2005 2:55:15 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (4) of 24225

It all ties together, dude...long article... ----------------------------------------- So let's talk about population Posted by Stuart Staniford on Tue Dec 20 at 1:57 AM EST Back in the thread on my radio interview with Jason Bradford, there were requests for a thread on population issues (which came up at the end of the interview as we ran out of time). So let's dig into the United Nations' World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. UN population projections through 2050. Click to enlarge. The medium scenario (dark green) is the UN's best guess as to what will happen. High and Low represent their best estimates of the range of reasonably likely outcomes. The Constant Fertility line is their estimate of what would happen if world average fertility did not decline any further. Source: World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. Let's start by panning the camera back to take a look at the big picture. Every person planning to live through much of the twenty-first century should spend at least a little while staring at this graph, and thinking about the implications. If the world feels at all crowded to you, this is why. This is what the scientific and industrial revolutions have wrought. Growth of human population since AD 0. Click to enlarge. Source: US Census Bureau. Also here -- my graph before 1900 is an average of the McEvedy/Jones and the Biraben estimates. After 1900 I use the UN numbers. To understand population growth, you need to know a little bit about how the demographers think about the world. Human population growth is sort-of-exponential, but not really. It's sort-of exponential in that the rate of change of the population is sort-of proportional to the number of people now. The more people, the more kids they can have, other things being equal. However, other things are not equal, and so the rate of population growth varies over time, and thus the graph doesn't follow an exponential curve with much precision. In fact, the growth above is mostly super-exponential - the growth rate increased over time until quite recently: There's more... (1659 words) \| Comments (0 new, 1 total) \| Permalink theoildrum.com

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