1) Could there be a way (like PSM etc.) to increase life-span of conventional equipment even further (to 0.18 micron) ??
2) How long in terms of years should 0.18 and 0.13 fabs & processes be away from us now ?
3) Since EUV was considered to be the hot new technology around the corner still based on optical processing, could there be some sort of DUV-squeeze in the meantime developing, I mean a trend that might put DUV in sort of "sandwich" position ?? If conventional i-line equip can be used to 0.25 micron, why not try to immediately install EUV afterwards thus skipping one generation of equipment investments ??
4) if 3) is true, then this would be even more bad news for CYMI as market leader for DUV laser sources. Also 90% market share certainly lures contenders with power muscle (p.e. Komatsu) especially if margins are that high...
One man's opinion as of today (very important that you realize the operative word, TODAY).
1. I believe i-line will definitely run out of gas at 0.25u and there are no real tricks to get it down to 0.18u. The physics equations and such seem to prove this point. (However, Physics proved that optical litho runs out of steam at 1.0u years ago).
2. Mainstream fabs at those dimensions are a minimum 3 years out. you will see some foundries or large companies like TI, INTC, IBM, LU or Japanese/Korean DRAM producer put a line or a facility together at these dimensions. By the year 2001 there may only be a dozen on line. I think mainstream is in the 3-5 range. If your question is whether 0.18u and 0.13u will be in production somewhere soon, the answer is yes. My guess is that INTC, NEC, Samsung, and one other might have a full scale manufacturing capability within 18 months.
3. Your point is well taken and has a great deal of merit. However, since lead time for systems stretch out in 6-24 month time periods, many of the DUV systems have already been put on order. With expansions and growth in the IC industry no one waits for the next technology. You invest in the best you can acquire when you need it or aq little before you need it. This allows you to be one of the first to market. Both X-ray and e-beam lithography have been squeezed in the past as DUV, i-line, and g-line pushed out their implementation. DUV was deemed required for the mainstream prior to the tricks being developed. DUV is here and will be well worth the expense if you are first to market the next generation of microprocessor or DRAM at this technological feature sizes. EUV is not well enough established today nor was it worth "betting" when the initial orders were placed for next generation lithography tools. No sense playing that big of a gamble with billions in revenue at stake. You are now seeing interest in EUV from an R&D perspective. I think the major compaqnies are giving it a very serios look and will be testing the technology for implementation down the road. There is a roadmap and timetable associated with this.
4. The industry is very dynamic but the issues for CYMI are too far down the road. they still have a good portion of the product life cycle to climb prior to the plateau and then fall off. This is to far outinto the investment future to be concerned with. Your comment is so true and analogous to INTC and the microprocessor. Lots of pretenders to the throne and some of them have failed while others have nipped away at the market. INTC still controls and owns the majority of the market but inroads have been made. INTC is not garnering the mega profits like it used to but it is still extremely profitable. they also seem to be just one genration ahead of the pack and can get greaqt margins prior to the competition coming in causing price concessions. CYMI also could be working on the next type of source for x-ray or EUV and still be a player. I do not know what they have on their design drawing board. Companies come and go in this industry but those that have survived had the foresight to anticipate the change in the market. Personally, I would not have given VECO the time of day 3 years ago based on my history with its product like. I viewed it as a business in the process of going out of business. They embarked on a new course and direction which I did not believe would succeed. They proved me wrong and have established themselves as a formidable company in newer markets. For my blindness, I was rewarded with a good opportunity to ride this stock up in value over the past few years.
You never know what is going to happen in the future with some of these technologies. All I can say is that x-ray lithography still hasn't been fully implemented even though all other conventional lithography was to have run out of steam a long time ago. Finally, even with advances in technology, one has to go a do a sanity check and realize that as of today, more than 1/2 of all IC manufactured are done at feature sizes of 0.75u and above. Old technologies take a great deal longer to die off and fade into the sunset as compared to the time it takes to develop and implement the next advanced generation of technology.
Andrew |
