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Biotech / Medical : MGI Pharma MOGN New patents, anti cancer

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To: rkrw who wrote (1578)12/21/2005 1:31:47 PM
From: tuck  Read Replies (1) of 1826
 
rkrw,

It is known to a number of us that you have done the spadework on AQUAVAN's prospects. I remember you and Stefaan (and even Harry) making the case for it being a tough sell on the Guilford board. In part because midazolam is generic and thus much cheaper, and in part because midazolam works pretty well, and AQUAVAN would represent only a marginal improvement. Please correct me if I am misstating.

Perhaps today's PR indicates they've found the right dosing schedule. MOGN was drastically oversold, IMO, and this was simply an excuse for a good pop. However, I don't see how the market dynamics would have changed to justify said pop, do you?

The December calls I wrote against my MOGN stake expired worthless, and I just now wrote a fresh batch of January calls, based on the above thoughts, for what that's worth.

I would think the only way to beat midazolam would be to compete on price, even against the generic form. Since they bought GLFD, maybe this is a possibility? I haven't heard Lonnie even discuss AQUAVAN recently, so I don't know what MOGN's intentions might be.

Cheers, Tuck
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