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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 299.81

+2.7%

Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (27599)	12/21/2005 7:25:59 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95617

That's true, if other analysts follow CSFB's policy, and include stock option expense, estimates for many stocks will come down substantially. That will certainly cause some "readjustment" in prices I would think. Having said that however, the earnings estimate reductions will not go near the depressed levels they were in Oct 98 and 02. Right now, and for the foreseeable future, the business outlook for the semis and semi-equips looks good with rising revenue numbers for 06, 07, and 08(See the Gartner report posted earlier today as an example). This type of business environment does not support the establishment of a "long term bottom". Tomorrow, and the next few days, may be a time to be extra careful to see how the market responds to the CSFB report(and maybe others as well) that address options expense in terms of reduced earnings estimates. Don

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