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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.81+2.7%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (27610)12/21/2005 10:23:21 PM
From: etchmeister  Read Replies (3) of 95616
 
One easy way to look at the Bookings and Billings numbers is to just add up the SEMI Bookings and Billings numbers from 1996 through 2004. The result is shown below.

Hi Don
That's the first thing I did but than I looked at the timescale (monthly data) to determine when that discrepancy developed. Over the long haul bookings and billings match; however as far as I recall there was a large number of cancellations in 2000/2001 and there is also the introduction of SAB 101 which delayed revenue (billings) recognition by 3 months perhaps even longer.
Of course one possibility is that SEMI adjusted the bookings by including cancellations and consequently revised bookings downwards.

Remember, there is a backlog component that we cannot know exactly, however, it seems reasonable to assume it is several billion dollars at any one point in time.
That's correct but backlog is ultimately created by bookings (my definition of backlog is orders minus shipments and when orderbook grows faster than shipments than backlog is created; orders usually become shipments but orders could also be reduced due to cancellation.
To me it's hard to believe that three years ago when thing looked fairly weak backlog was created - that's why I looked at monthly base on a time scale going back several years to pinpoint when the discrepancy showed up.
Not sure if there's merit in discussion further but to me it's one of those things that can drive me nuts because lack of explaination.
It's also possible that I don't see forest because of trees but other posters (niek, Brian)were curious about the high billing level relative to bookings.
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