I hope you are right. With the exception of Lebanon, the strong and mostly autocratic leaders of the other countries have a strong lock on their people.
Not sure why you say this. I would say North Korea (for example) has a "strong lock" on its people, but I don't think the same is true it Egypt, Jordan, Syria, etc. You could probably have said the same thing about Russia in 1987, and three years later it had collapsed. I'm not expecting numerous regional revolutions within a year, but over the course of the next 20 years the political landscape could change dramatically, especially if Iraq starts the ball rolling. With the exception of the Saudis, all the ME countries have relatively open societies with free press and normal levels of exposure to the outside world. The dictators in the region are pretty weak, as far as I can tell. I wouldn't be shocked to see a Ukraine-style revolution in Egypt within 5-10 years (next election, when Mubarak should be finished). Who knows about these things, though.
As for the Saudis, there is no way they will ever have free elections if you ask me. The royal family is unlikely to voluntarily give up control of the oil purse strings to elected Saudi rulers, because those rulers would likely immediately impound all of the former royal family's wealth as illegally stolen goods.
Do you think revolt is possible?
No special knowledge of the Saudis, but I would doubt it. |
