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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (48132)12/24/2005 4:01:45 PM
From: UncleBigs  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
I think it's a mistake to anticipate that the next reflation cycle will produce more inflation than past cycles.

First, between now and the next reflation cycle, there will be one hell of a deflationary scare if not outright declining prices in assets as well as goods and services. When I say deflation I don't mean decline in money supply. I mean a decline in nominal prices of assets, goods and services.

Second, reflation will be more difficult the next time around because there is little pent up demand or borrowing power. I think a portfolio positioned for perpetual inflation at this point in time will have disastrous results for the next 2 years.
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