The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (48113)	12/24/2005 9:00:19 PM
From: kailuabruddah	Read Replies (1) of 110194

I am pretty much in agreement on the very defensive nature of your strategy... Faber has essentially spelled this out: ameinfo.com And I do think there will be good opportunities to make money via short (and put option) positions in 2006 in certain sectors (I'm watching restaurants and travel plays in particular)... This being the 2nd year of the 2nd term of a re-elected president helps the short side as well... Although we will probably see an emotional blow-off rally if the US really does scale back in Iraq... But the bullish case for longer dated (say the 5 year in particular) US debt is: 1. RE/Consumer led slowdown/recession beginning now 2. Assuming no Alternative Minimum Tax modification - economy slows even more 3. Commodity Boom is due a breather of at least 1 to 2 years 4. Pension/Insurance funds still need to match assets with liabilities 5. There is simply no Wage Inflation working its way thru the system Mish should have waited until GREBB Day to publish this: safehaven.com Maybe he can update it for the end of January?

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