Ascend Communications (ASND) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 209.98

+4.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: EAGLE-EYE who wrote (12900)	9/15/1997 7:25:00 PM
From: Jeff Sheeran	of 61433

I tend to agree on catching a falling knife. There is much talk about the quarter being backend loaded. If I recall last quarter was the same way. They shipped the 56k cards on the last day of the quarter! Call me stupid but could that explain for the weak July in the 8k? If they are doing the same thing this quarter then I am concearned about 4qtr. I believe company will do well but there is no doubt that lack of an ITU standard is slowing short term demand for acess equipment. The good part of this is there will be pent up demand once a standard is reached. (ask Peter Lynch about pent up demand) Once a standard is reached then sales will be great. That may be in 2nd quarter of 98 though. Possibly customers are only adding capacity for current demand and delaying extra capacity till standard is reached. Example customer a only orders 90% in Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan. then in Feb (after standard ) customer A orders 140%. COMS releases earnings next Tuesday, if 3Com has a strong quarter and states that they are picking up market share this could be more bad news for ASND. If 3Com is weak on earnings than this could be bad news for all Networkers. We have not hit bottom. Also this NTT deal conceans me, I can't help but to think back when AOL was shopping between Netscape and MSFT. Netscape announced the deal then AOL went with MSFT. I am not counting this deal as money in the bank until it is signed on the dotted line. The H&Q Anylist who hinted at this deal cut his erning estimates after all so he cant be too sure of the deal. I believe all networkers were down today because of lack of standart in the ITU meeting that convened on Friday. Is ASND a good buy right now? absolutely!!! I believe if I wait I may be rewarded for my patience with a better buy!! Regards, Jeff Sheeran

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