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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (22870)	12/28/2005 10:05:03 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) of 78750

OT? Picked up NABI yesterday @3.43. It got whacked hard on failure of a staph drug. I doubt it qualifies as a value stock, but here's my rationale for the purchase: Selling near tangible book [S&P] thus little or no value assigned to intellectual property. Anti-Smoking Vaccine Shows Promise forbes.com NicVax MARKET: Tobacco use is the single leading preventable cause of death in the United States and is responsible for more than 440,000 deaths each year. Experts estimate that 70 per cent of smokers in the US want to quit, but less than 5 per cent of those who try to quit abstain from smoking for 3 to 12 months. In addition, tobacco use is thought to cause $75.5B in excess medical costs and $81.9 billion in illness- related productivity losses each year in the US [So Co's/healthcare plans are eager to support anti-smoking solutions]. BUYOUT? Several big pharma's have projects to address nicotine addiction. Could they buy NABI to build nicotine portfolio and use current cash/cashflow to offset coming expirations: * Nicorette/Nicotrol - Pfizer * NiQuitin/NicoDerm/Nicorette/Nicabate - GlaxoSmithKline * Nicotinell/Habitrol - Novartis * Zyban (Bupropion) - GlaxoSmithKline Late-Stage Development Product Focus * Rimonabant (Acomplia) - Sanofi-Aventis * Varenicline - Pfizer INSIDER BUYS: CFO 17.4k sh @3.51 & CB/CEO/Pres 63.3K sh @3.47 SVP -Technology 5K @3.46 Early Nov after bad news. CFO had been planning to sell 30k shares @13.33/sh, but shifted gears after seeing the lower price and doing the math. Needless to say this is hghly speculative, but there could also be a turnaround in there staph projects and they have some other stuff they're working on that I didn't really look at.

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