Hello Maurice, <<To consider value created by various enterprises, one needs to start at their beginning>>
... wrong, we should start at the point when we first discussed the issue and no earlier, because a day we do not sell is a day we bought, and a day we did not buy is not a day we sold, and that moment would be ... oh, let me see ... here is it ...
Message 15410107
2/26/2001
Maurice: <<I expect to see a 16,000 Dow by February 2002.>>
Jay: Excellent! Suggest you to take out a jumbo mortgage, deposit with broker as new equity, leverage up with margin debt, and use the whole pot of chips to sell QCOM puts, generating even more chips, and buy calls on all 30 Dow stocks soonest. We will be waiting to celebrate with you, BBQ fire and sauce readied.
Maurice: <<But of course the herd is free to panic and sell their shares at low prices to those who think the world will get better. The predators are always the top of the food chain. The herd in panic is not.>>
Jay: 60+% constitute the herd, not the individuals in this den. We the lone hunters are not panic stricken, but wrecked with anticipation of a feast on ribs ripped from the bulls. We are not selling anything cheap to anyone. We sold expensive, very expensive, and are waiting for bulls like you to panic, and panic you will. Panic is only for folks who sold too late, not early. Agree with you that the predators are always on top of the food chain, by definition.
Maurice: <<The panic in QUALCOMM [like many of the other panics outside the dotcom world] is based on lack of understanding of what's actually happening.>>
Jay: Why limit the thus reasonable panic to the dotcom world? It is not as if money lost there is not lost to the rest of the economy.
We will soon reach full understanding of the full extent of the damage. QCOM is but one chair on the Titanic.
Maurice: <<Financial collapse of 2001? I don't see any reason for it. In fact, I see the contrary. The world is getting better in leaps and bounds every day. Not for everyone of course, but overall and on average and that's what makes the world tick.>>
Jay: The world looked beautiful for most of 1929. It takes but one morning realization to see the mistake made the night before. What is it you need to see before you panic? Give us a hint of your portfolio allocation so that we can learn how it should be done and watch for signs of danger, as you would define them. When you do see those signs up close, where do you suppose the indices would be?
The rest of your twisting of points regarding total market cap of gold etc is not relevant, since no one invests on the basis of total market ca, only on the basis of their own expected return, absolute or relative.
... oh, and before you invoke collapse did not happen per my script, here I had taken the trouble to define collapse, as anyone remotely scientific would, Message 15758771
May 4th, 2001
Hi WestPacific, I have a question.
Is the US equity market heading up, down, sideways, up and then down, down and then up, tomorrow, in the short term, long term, and in my life time?
I do not know the answer.
I guess down, down, up, down, down, down, side ways, up, down, down, side ways once again, and, one fine day, up, up, down, up. I have reasons for my guess; you know them pretty ‘debt-ly bubbly’ and ‘bursting-ly’ well.
I guess this pattern will be the case over the next few weeks, and ‘fractal-ly’ speaking, repeated in similar pattern on a longer time horizon covering the next 36 months, and maybe longer if policy mistakes are made.
The system is weak, many events can go wrong, resulting possibly in market shaking outcomes we want no part of, and once help is on the scene, the cure may do us additional long term harm.
Bottom slapping guesses, Nasdaq hits an ultimate low of 1,400, and maybe 900, and S&P and DJIA making generally the same unhappy journey, maybe 0.7-0.9k and 5-6k respectively, unless of course lower still, or maybe not at all.
Others have much higher and much lower guesses, and all for reasons that can be voiced with some level of conviction.
Thank you for having roused up this current thread of discussion.
FYI, snap snap of the fingers, Maurice, back to today, when, on May 4th, 2001, the above index targets were proclaimed, the Nasdaq was at 2191, going down to 1,170 14 months later. Spot on, close enough for government work on the S&P, and DOW was covered by hedge words regarding maybe longer if policy mistakes are made. The pain, in other words, is still ahead of us, only more painful.
In any case, on 2/26/2001 QCOM was at I trust correct and split adjusted 64.19 and today, ouch, at 43.65; nice going, Maurice.
My gold worship was certainly in place when we first discussed QCOM Message 15152323 <<January 9th, 2001>>
On that fateful day when we first met on line and discussing QCOM, NEM was at 16.53, and today, yikes, at 53.40 !! Beautiful, like I said it would be, based on nada diligence and zilch research, and not dependent on R&D, nor beholden to management anything … oh, no, wait, NEM has management.
Ok, gold on that day was 267-268, and today … holy geewhizbang 5phucking15.
In other words, one oz of gold would have bought 4.16 shares of qcom back WHEN WE STARTED OUR DISCUSSION CONCERNING GOLD AND QCOM, and now would buy 11.8 shares of QCOM. But then again, why would one want to trade precious gold in to get in return ever worth-less QCOM?
Just to add pepper to the flavoring, it would take almost 4 shares of NEM to buy 1 script of QCOM back when you were chanting QCOM and I NEM/Gold, whereas today, 1 NEM gets one 1.2odd QCOM.
Maurice, can you say, "JAY, YOU HAVE BEEN AND ARE INDEED ASTUTELY PRESCIENT, IN FACT, AS A MATTER OF SI HARDDRIVE STORED RECORD, AND IN TRUTH, ASTOUNDINGLY SO. HOW DO YOU DO IT? CAN YOU BE RIGHT AGAIN GOING FORWARD?" ?
Gold may or may not be insignificant, but it is undeniably worth more QCOM so far in our debate concerning relative merit, and I am almost certain the trend is my friend.
Chugs, J |
