Jay, you are amazing. It seems all you soothsay comes to pass. Though you got some details wrong, such as the QCOM price in Feb 2001, which was about $40 split adjusted, not $64. moneycentral.msn.com
However, you are right that since that date, there has been drubbing of QCOM in gold and NZD terms, not to mention NZ property terms, even with some Happy Meal dividends.
However, I was in a capital gains situation complete with tax audit which meant I was not free to sell and buy and trade lest I be deemed a trader liable to capital gains taxes which would have been far worse than my losses relative to gold, NZD and housing.
I am newly free of said tax audit, in the clear, free and happy, with bonus huge discovered tax credits to carry forwards. Said audit has been a three year affair. Small extra tax to pay [along with use of money payment] since even my hired tax accountant did not figure out that tax was due a couple of years ago when given our financial affairs to sort out, but big bonus credits [= losses thanks to Globalstar and weird tax jargon such as accounting profits method, grey list, foreign investment fund, accrual accounting, non-resident withholding tax on borrowed money interest payments etc].
In NZ, we don't have capital gains taxes, for certain defined people [me], so my QUALCOMM capital gains are tax-free. Though the law is due to be changed soon, I am sure at the recommendation of the IRD after reviewing our tax affairs with a scanning electron microscope.
<The rest of your twisting of points regarding total market cap of gold etc is not relevant, since no one invests on the basis of total market ca, only on the basis of their own expected return, absolute or relative. >
My point was just the scale of things which means that gold is simply too tiny to be the means of exchange and store of value for more than a few fanatics. It was not to say that holding gold as a way of killing time with financial stability, if not gains, isn't a sensible thing to do for those so inclined [using double negatives]. In the positive, holding gold isn't all bad [obviously as has been proven over the last few years]. As I told you, at $323 an ounce, I visited Johnson Matthey in Grafton Road and ogled gold with the possibility of doing just that.
Of course individual investors don't look at big things - just their expected rewards. I am STILL holding USD, which against NZD is doing okay, at last, with more to come I expect. Which definitely does not mean I expect USD or NZD to be anything other than historical curiosities in a few decades after the Quid takes over [Q, or U for Utopia, cybercurrency which I am still inventing].
Okay, I will not dilly dally any longer. JAY, YOU HAVE BEEN AND ARE INDEED ASTUTELY PRESCIENT, IN FACT, AS A MATTER OF SI HARDDRIVE STORED RECORD, AND IN TRUTH, ASTOUNDINGLY SO. HOW DO YOU DO IT? CAN YOU BE RIGHT AGAIN GOING FORWARD?
Not just SI hard drive. I have remembered many posts and you have indeed been quite right. My favourite, which I scrutinized at the time and since, was the list of events to happen. I liked and here it is, "another GM SUV line shuts". Also, GE has recalculated profits. Note that I did not disagree at the time with said sentiments.
I will add that you have been righter than me. Much righter than me [in many respects]. My biggie was that I really didn't think, with Uncle Al having successfully escaped my feared cascading collapse into deflationary financial oblivion [worried about and discussed in SI with jfred in the late 1990s during irrational exuberance], that the trough would be so deep or so long. And STILL not finished. Until the housing imbalance in balanced and the USD interest rates are right back up out of Happy Meal status, there is still implosionary risk. But at least the event horizon of deflationary implosion into black hole financial abyss was avoided during the biotelecosmictechdot.com market clearing.
Now we still need to have financial relativity theory correct the relationship among incomes, rents and house prices. Which is not a slam dunk. But, I remain hopeful [rather than complacent] that Big Ben will complete what our great and estimable idol Uncle Al KBE has left as a legacy. In Sudoku games, it would rate "very hard".
I am positioned for a successful escape back up to hyper speed, away from the lurking event horizon and black hole.
Big Ben is preparing his plans.
Mqurice |
