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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (48462)12/30/2005 5:50:35 PM
From: Kailash  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
By country
census.gov

Countries and products details
census.gov

Advanced technology YTD October 2005 figures
census.gov
(Trade deficits in ATP started in 2002)

Obscure Economic Indicator: Port of Los Angeles container counts (lots of used paper gets shipped this way)
slate.com
slate.com (graph of empty vs full)

US trade with the rest of the world has of course increased dramatically as our trading partners became better off. But their imports to us have risen faster and are now far higher. We now run deficits with rich and poor alike.

census.gov

Main trading parters outside of North America (we run deficits with Mexico and Canada too, cf. census.gov

"The goods deficit with China increased from $20.1 billion in September to $20.5 billion in October. Exports increased $0.7 billion (primarily soybeans and civilian aircraft) to $3.9 billion, while imports increased $1.1 billion (primarily TV’s and VCR’s; toys, games, and sporting goods; and computers) to $24.4 billion."

Poor customers, big deficit.

Aircraft remain a huge export; even to the Europeans, we export nearly twice as much as we import. But it's a lone bird in a vast landscape.

"The goods deficit with the European Union increased from $10.1 billion in September to $12.1 billion in October. Exports increased $1.2 billion (primarily civilian aircraft, nuts, and agricultural farming products) to $16.0 billion, while imports increased $3.2 billion (primarily passenger cars; petroleum products; pharmaceutical preparations; and artwork, antiques, and stamps) to $28.1 billion."

Wealthy customers, big deficit.

"The goods deficit with Japan increased from $6.4 billion in September to $7.4 billion in October. Exports increased $0.4 billion (primarily civilian aircraft) to $4.9 billion, while imports increased $1.4 billion (primarily automotive vehicles, parts, and engines; and other industrial machines) to $12.2 billion."

Wealthy customers, big deficit.

These do not look like sustainable trading practices, unless there are vast figures not picked up by the statisticians (as "dark matter" theories have recently suggested).

We do run a trade surplus with some countries -- Holland, for some odd reason, tops the list -- but the numbers are modest:

census.gov

And they are not growing -- our trade surplus with the Netherlands has remained around this level for the past 15 years. The overall deficit, on the other hand, is still growing. At some point, we won't be able to borrow the money to pay for it.

Happy New Year!
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