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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (8921)12/31/2005 12:18:39 PM
From: Gersh Avery  Read Replies (2) of 12411
 
Years ago, Jim Hopkins and I were talking about baby boomer cash out time.

Boomers, getting ready for retirement, were pumping large blocks of cash into the stock market. This was the root cause of the late 90's run up.

Some day they will want to withdraw their money. If they all did that at the same time the S&P would be near 0.

That won't happen, of course. What will take place, is that more and more will retire and collect from their pensions and 401s.

The key is, when do the withdrawals and overhead exceed the deposits?

It was the late 90's when we were chatting on the topic. Jim thought that 2008 would be the time that the cross over took place. I thought it would be sooner.

The market is about to hit a brick wall.

I was watching CNBC last week. Bob Pisanni was on his "Santa Rally" ra ra kick. He explained that the last five trading days of the year followed by the first 2 of the new year were historically massive up times for the market. The reason was that the pension funds had to make purchases for their accounts.

The fact that the funds were not making these purchases is telling to me.

Are we there yet???? We just might be ....
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