I would like to enter the following portfolio into this year's stock picking contest. I do hold all shares included in the portfolio, although not necessarily in these proportions.
ALXN @ 20.25 10,003.50
COR @ 2.28 19,981.92
CTIC @ 2.18 5,003.10
ICOS @ 27.63 5,001.03
KOSN @ 4.44 4,999.44
MEDX @ 13.85 19,999.40
MLNM @ 9.70 10,000.70
MOGN @ 17.16 4,993.56
SEPR @ 51.60 10,010.40
TELK @ 16.99 10,007.11
My chosen charity is the Swedish Red Cross Society. Like I did last year I will, due to the logistical problems of sending funds to US-based entities from Sweden, spend the money right away. This year's contribution, the countervalue of USD 100, will go towards the relief efforts in earthquake-hit Pakistan. It's freezing cold over there and some of the children don't even have shoes to protect their feet, it was reported on the radio today.
As for my selections.
ALXN
Even Dr. Bell should have realised by now that Pexelizumab is very much like a dead-end street and a very expensive one too. The success of eculizumab in PNH will however be enough for Genzyme to gobble them up before the year has seen 2007 approaching.
COR
Cortex has featured in all my portfolios, since I started to participate in the contest. So, why not this year? As usual, we are expecting the big Pharma deal this year. According to Dr. Henry they are in talks with some 16 companies. It would be strange if they didn't manage to monetize their Ampakine-based IP one way or another with such an impressive posse of would-be suitors.
CTIC
Last year was not a good year for my stock picks. The portfolio ended the (full) year at - 26,8 % and the main culprit was CTIC which company lost 73,2 % of its value. I think however that the fall in the share price is overdone. Pixantrone results are expected during the year. And judging from the results seen in the 38 patient aggressive NHL trial, they may very well be stunning. If they are, the share price development may well be stunning, too.
ICOS
Just sitting there waiting for Lilly.
KOSN
I was actually quite hesitant to put this one in the portfolio (and still is). They may well know a lot about how to create man-made polyketide analogues. The question is: How much do they know about drug development? But the share price has taken a lot of beatings lately and they will most probably bounce back when the market is given a decent reason. And Roche is after all still meeting some of the bills.
MEDX
Medarex was the star of my cast last year, actually ending the year in green. The market may well be confused as to why the shares are now bought, but I don't think Pfizer and BMY were, when they paid heavily up-front to get in on the anti-CTLA-4 action.
MLNM
Millennium has finally got a driver who knows to keep the hands on the steering wheel and the vehicle on the road. I expect to see a continued focus on the business and possibly some creative licensing (both ways).
MOGN
The market has lately not been very enthusiastic about Lonnie Moulder's efforts to convert MGI Pharma from another unsuccesful oncology products' developer to a major biopharmaceutical player (everything is relative). I believe he will start to earn back some of his credits during the coming year.
SEPR
Sepracor does well. More products are coming to the market and the management is impressive. Now they will soon have more than their shareholders' funds to work with as their company becomes cash-flow positive. Either they will be taken out or they will do the leveraging themselves.
TELK.
Telik is heading into crunching times during the year to come. They appear to have done a proper ground work and may well bring positive news to shareholders.
Erik |
